Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $6.25 - $10.79 | $8.21 |
| Multi-Stage | $11.14 - $12.24 | $11.68 |
| Blended Fair Value | $9.94 | |
| Current Price | $1.13 | |
| Upside | 779.86% | |
| Decision | Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | 1.57% | 6.47% | 0.07 | 0.08 | 0.07 | 0.10 | 0.05 | 0.07 | 0.13 | 0.06 | 0.07 | 0.05 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | -5.02% | 17.62% | -30.83% | 76.34% | -20.67% | -49.33% | 122.17% | -9.86% | 35.69% | 25.76% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 6.43% | 8.10% | 5.66% | 7.04% | 4.60% | 5.34% | 10.46% | 3.43% | 3.23% | 1.97% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 739.57 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 244.47 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 495.10 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 147.91 | 92.45 | 55.47 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 495.10 | 495.10 | 495.10 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -147.91 | -92.45 | -55.47 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 347.19 | 402.66 | 439.64 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 1,504.14 | 1,504.14 | 1,504.14 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 0.23 | 0.27 | 0.29 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 0.16 | 0.16 | 0.16 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 0.23 | 0.27 | 0.29 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 0.39 | 0.43 | 0.45 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.53% | 6.53% | 6.53% |
| Growth Rate | 0.22% | 1.22% | 2.22% |
| Fair Value | $6.25 | $8.21 | $10.79 |
| Upside / Downside | 453.12% | 626.14% | 855.19% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 739.57 | 748.60 | 757.75 | 767.00 | 776.37 | 785.85 | 809.42 |
| Payout Ratio | 33.06% | 44.44% | 55.83% | 67.22% | 78.61% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 244.47 | 332.71 | 423.07 | 515.59 | 610.31 | 707.26 | 748.72 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.53% | 6.53% | 6.53% |
| Growth Rate | 0.22% | 1.22% | 2.22% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 309.23 | 312.32 | 315.41 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 365.48 | 372.81 | 380.21 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 413.97 | 426.49 | 439.26 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 455.45 | 473.90 | 492.91 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 490.56 | 515.53 | 541.50 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 14,717.34 | 15,466.38 | 16,245.62 |
| Equity Value (M) | 16,752.03 | 17,567.42 | 18,414.89 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 1,504.14 | 1,504.14 | 1,504.14 |
| Fair Value | $11.14 | $11.68 | $12.24 |
| Upside / Downside | 885.60% | 933.58% | 983.44% |
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|---|---|---|---|---|
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| 5434.TW | Topco Scientific Co.,Ltd. | 3.97% | $11.76 | 59.09% |
| ALTXC.PA | TXCOM Group | 3.97% | $0.30 | 35.01% |
| MND.AX | Monadelphous Group Limited | 3.97% | $1.05 | 72.16% |
| MXI.AX | MaxiPARTS Limited | 3.97% | $0.09 | 46.30% |
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| CNT.BK | Christiani & Nielsen (Thai) Public Company Limited | 3.96% | $0.04 | 56.47% |
| UCID.JK | PT Uni-Charm Indonesia Tbk | 3.96% | $16.86 | 78.76% |
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| 4065.KL | PPB Group Berhad | 3.95% | $0.42 | 72.75% |
| 600585.SS | Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited | 3.95% | $0.86 | 51.83% |
| 8464.TW | Nien Made Enterprise Co., Ltd. | 3.95% | $14.49 | 64.65% |
| BRFS3.SA | BRF S.A. | 3.95% | $0.71 | 31.92% |
| F34.SI | Wilmar International Limited | 3.95% | $0.12 | 63.66% |
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| 6412.T | Heiwa Corporation | 3.94% | $80.00 | 63.34% |
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| NDT.MI | Neodecortech S.p.A. | 3.94% | $0.15 | 28.43% |
| TCSG.ME | TCS Group Holding PLC | 3.94% | $129.27 | 21.76% |
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| 4953.TWO | WITS Corp. | 3.93% | $4.91 | 84.65% |
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| 601789.SS | Ningbo Construction Co., Ltd. | 3.93% | $0.20 | 78.65% |
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