Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Medlive Technology Co., Ltd. (2192.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - DistributionSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$7.70 - $11.88$9.64
Multi-Stage$17.61 - $19.37$18.48
Blended Fair Value$14.06
Current Price$13.39
Upside4.99%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018
DPS0.00%0.00%0.240.170.020.120.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--43.59%927.67%-86.81%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.61%2.34%0.22%0.56%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)614.07
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)403.83
(=) Cash Retained (M)210.23
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)122.8176.7646.06
Cash Retained (M)210.23210.23210.23
(-) Cash Required (M)-122.81-76.76-46.06
(=) Excess Retained (M)87.42133.47164.18
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)736.25736.25736.25
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.120.180.22
LTM Dividend per Share0.550.550.55
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.120.180.22
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.670.730.77
WACC / Discount Rate6.49%6.49%6.49%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$7.70$9.64$11.88
Upside / Downside-42.50%-27.99%-11.27%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)614.07607.93601.85595.83589.87583.97601.49
Payout Ratio65.76%70.61%75.46%80.31%85.15%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)403.83429.26454.14478.48502.29525.57556.38

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.49%6.49%6.49%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)399.02403.09407.16
Year 2 PV (M)392.40400.45408.58
Year 3 PV (M)384.30396.19408.31
Year 4 PV (M)375.00390.54406.56
Year 5 PV (M)364.73383.73403.50
PV of Terminal Value (M)11,052.7711,628.3212,227.59
Equity Value (M)12,968.2313,602.3114,261.71
Shares Outstanding (M)736.25736.25736.25
Fair Value$17.61$18.48$19.37
Upside / Downside31.55%37.98%44.67%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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