Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $5.57 - $8.62 | $6.99 |
| Multi-Stage | $12.79 - $14.07 | $13.41 |
| Blended Fair Value | $10.20 | |
| Current Price | $2.44 | |
| Upside | 318.04% | |
| Decision | Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.24 | 0.09 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | 169.47% | 80.43% | 0.00% | -100.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | -100.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 10.67% | 2.89% | 1.27% | 0.00% | 0.04% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.10% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 834.95 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 457.08 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 377.87 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 166.99 | 104.37 | 62.62 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 377.87 | 377.87 | 377.87 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -166.99 | -104.37 | -62.62 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 210.88 | 273.50 | 315.24 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 1,394.40 | 1,394.40 | 1,394.40 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 0.15 | 0.20 | 0.23 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 0.33 | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 0.15 | 0.20 | 0.23 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 0.48 | 0.52 | 0.55 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.43% | 6.43% | 6.43% |
| Growth Rate | -2.00% | -1.00% | 0.00% |
| Fair Value | $5.57 | $6.99 | $8.62 |
| Upside / Downside | 128.35% | 186.29% | 253.28% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 834.95 | 826.60 | 818.33 | 810.15 | 802.05 | 794.03 | 817.85 |
| Payout Ratio | 54.74% | 61.80% | 68.85% | 75.90% | 82.95% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 457.08 | 510.80 | 563.39 | 614.88 | 665.29 | 714.63 | 756.51 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.43% | 6.43% | 6.43% |
| Growth Rate | -2.00% | -1.00% | 0.00% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 475.11 | 479.96 | 484.81 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 487.42 | 497.42 | 507.52 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 494.80 | 510.10 | 525.72 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 497.96 | 518.60 | 539.87 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 497.52 | 523.42 | 550.40 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 15,375.58 | 16,176.22 | 17,009.87 |
| Equity Value (M) | 17,828.38 | 18,705.71 | 19,618.18 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 1,394.40 | 1,394.40 | 1,394.40 |
| Fair Value | $12.79 | $13.41 | $14.07 |
| Upside / Downside | 424.00% | 449.79% | 476.61% |
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