Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

Fundamentals

Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

Valuations

Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Mode

Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

CN Logistics International Holdings Limited (2130.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Integrated Freight & LogisticsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.82 - $1.22$1.01
Multi-Stage$1.57 - $1.73$1.65
Blended Fair Value$1.33
Current Price$3.42
Upside-61.08%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS0.00%0.00%0.030.120.310.200.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---74.82%-61.91%52.63%10,388.29%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.86%2.07%3.92%1.97%0.02%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)28.83
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)8.78
(=) Cash Retained (M)20.05
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)5.773.602.16
Cash Retained (M)20.0520.0520.05
(-) Cash Required (M)-5.77-3.60-2.16
(=) Excess Retained (M)14.2816.4417.88
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)292.69292.69292.69
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.050.060.06
LTM Dividend per Share0.030.030.03
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.050.060.06
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.080.090.09
WACC / Discount Rate7.44%7.44%7.44%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$0.82$1.01$1.22
Upside / Downside-76.09%-70.46%-64.21%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)28.8328.5428.2527.9727.6927.4228.24
Payout Ratio30.46%42.37%54.28%66.18%78.09%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)8.7812.0915.3418.5121.6324.6726.12

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.44%7.44%7.44%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)11.1411.2511.37
Year 2 PV (M)13.0213.2813.55
Year 3 PV (M)14.4814.9315.38
Year 4 PV (M)15.5816.2316.89
Year 5 PV (M)16.3817.2318.12
PV of Terminal Value (M)390.15410.47431.62
Equity Value (M)460.75483.39506.94
Shares Outstanding (M)292.69292.69292.69
Fair Value$1.57$1.65$1.73
Upside / Downside-53.97%-51.71%-49.36%

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