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Definitive Analysis

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Ten Pao Group Holdings Limited (1979.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Electrical Equipment & PartsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$55.75 - $152.03$142.48
Multi-Stage$21.28 - $23.30$22.27
Blended Fair Value$82.37
Current Price$1.70
Upside4,745.48%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS24.97%0.00%0.150.060.060.110.060.050.020.060.040.00
YoY Growth--142.62%9.92%-48.97%93.10%16.00%100.00%-58.31%50.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--9.87%5.98%4.05%5.78%2.76%5.16%3.92%3.33%2.75%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)787.69
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)231.95
(=) Cash Retained (M)555.74
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)157.5498.4659.08
Cash Retained (M)555.74555.74555.74
(-) Cash Required (M)-157.54-98.46-59.08
(=) Excess Retained (M)398.20457.28496.66
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,030.391,030.391,030.39
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.390.440.48
LTM Dividend per Share0.230.230.23
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.390.440.48
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.610.670.71
WACC / Discount Rate6.66%6.66%6.66%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$55.75$142.48$152.03
Upside / Downside3,179.39%8,280.96%8,843.07%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)787.69838.89893.42951.491,013.341,079.211,111.58
Payout Ratio29.45%41.56%53.67%65.78%77.89%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)231.95348.62479.48625.88789.28971.291,028.21

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.66%6.66%6.66%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)323.79326.86329.93
Year 2 PV (M)413.62421.49429.45
Year 3 PV (M)501.45515.84530.51
Year 4 PV (M)587.33609.92633.15
Year 5 PV (M)671.29703.71737.37
PV of Terminal Value (M)19,430.3420,368.8321,343.24
Equity Value (M)21,927.8122,946.6624,003.65
Shares Outstanding (M)1,030.391,030.391,030.39
Fair Value$21.28$22.27$23.30
Upside / Downside1,151.83%1,209.99%1,270.34%

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