Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $5.72 - $9.40 | $7.36 |
| Multi-Stage | $11.23 - $12.32 | $11.76 |
| Blended Fair Value | $9.56 | |
| Current Price | $2.40 | |
| Upside | 298.33% | |
| Decision | Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | 6.48% | 10.70% | 0.26 | 0.24 | 0.23 | 0.21 | 0.20 | 0.19 | 0.16 | 0.13 | 0.11 | 0.10 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | 4.86% | 6.84% | 7.21% | 7.91% | 5.60% | 14.55% | 28.17% | 11.18% | 10.69% | 11.74% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 11.02% | 7.46% | 8.65% | 8.13% | 8.12% | 6.60% | 5.95% | 6.17% | 4.93% | 3.51% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 1,881.00 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 1,646.00 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 235.00 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 376.20 | 235.13 | 141.08 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 235.00 | 235.00 | 235.00 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -376.20 | -235.13 | -141.08 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | -141.20 | -0.13 | 93.93 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 3,700.76 | 3,700.76 | 3,700.76 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | -0.04 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 0.44 | 0.44 | 0.44 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | -0.04 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 0.41 | 0.44 | 0.47 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.66% | 6.66% | 6.66% |
| Growth Rate | -0.42% | 0.58% | 1.58% |
| Fair Value | $5.72 | $7.36 | $9.40 |
| Upside / Downside | 138.26% | 206.50% | 291.64% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 1,881.00 | 1,891.92 | 1,902.90 | 1,913.95 | 1,925.06 | 1,936.23 | 1,994.32 |
| Payout Ratio | 87.51% | 88.01% | 88.50% | 89.00% | 89.50% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 1,646.00 | 1,664.99 | 1,684.14 | 1,703.46 | 1,722.95 | 1,742.61 | 1,844.75 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.66% | 6.66% | 6.66% |
| Growth Rate | -0.42% | 0.58% | 1.58% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 1,545.48 | 1,561.00 | 1,576.52 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 1,451.06 | 1,480.35 | 1,509.93 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 1,362.36 | 1,403.82 | 1,446.10 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 1,279.04 | 1,331.20 | 1,384.93 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 1,200.78 | 1,262.30 | 1,326.31 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 34,717.00 | 36,495.53 | 38,346.21 |
| Equity Value (M) | 41,555.73 | 43,534.19 | 45,590.01 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 3,700.76 | 3,700.76 | 3,700.76 |
| Fair Value | $11.23 | $11.76 | $12.32 |
| Upside / Downside | 367.87% | 390.15% | 413.30% |
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