Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $102.04 - $222.51 | $208.52 |
| Multi-Stage | $33.45 - $36.62 | $35.00 |
| Blended Fair Value | $121.76 | |
| Current Price | $2.90 | |
| Upside | 4,098.65% | |
| Decision | Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | 17.91% | 0.00% | 0.16 | 0.16 | 0.28 | 0.17 | 0.10 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.00 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | -0.35% | -43.73% | 62.86% | 79.58% | 38.98% | 0.00% | -100.00% | -98.36% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 5.68% | 1.94% | 3.08% | 1.15% | 0.88% | 2.04% | 0.00% | 0.04% | 2.83% | 0.00% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 956.63 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 317.84 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 638.79 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 191.33 | 119.58 | 71.75 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 638.79 | 638.79 | 638.79 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -191.33 | -119.58 | -71.75 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 447.46 | 519.21 | 567.04 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 855.03 | 855.03 | 855.03 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 0.52 | 0.61 | 0.66 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 0.37 | 0.37 | 0.37 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 0.52 | 0.61 | 0.66 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 0.90 | 0.98 | 1.03 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.43% | 6.43% | 6.43% |
| Growth Rate | 5.50% | 6.50% | 7.50% |
| Fair Value | $102.04 | $208.52 | $222.51 |
| Upside / Downside | 3,418.64% | 7,090.35% | 7,572.60% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 956.63 | 1,018.81 | 1,085.03 | 1,155.56 | 1,230.67 | 1,310.66 | 1,349.98 |
| Payout Ratio | 33.22% | 44.58% | 55.93% | 67.29% | 78.64% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 317.84 | 454.18 | 606.91 | 777.57 | 967.86 | 1,179.60 | 1,248.73 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.43% | 6.43% | 6.43% |
| Growth Rate | 5.50% | 6.50% | 7.50% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 422.75 | 426.76 | 430.77 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 525.82 | 535.84 | 545.95 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 627.07 | 645.07 | 663.41 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 726.51 | 754.45 | 783.19 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 824.18 | 863.99 | 905.32 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 25,471.01 | 26,701.27 | 27,978.61 |
| Equity Value (M) | 28,597.34 | 29,927.37 | 31,307.25 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 855.03 | 855.03 | 855.03 |
| Fair Value | $33.45 | $35.00 | $36.62 |
| Upside / Downside | 1,053.31% | 1,106.95% | 1,162.60% |
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