Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Dongguang Chemical Limited (1702.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ChemicalsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$8.24 - $17.81$11.78
Multi-Stage$11.45 - $12.58$12.01
Blended Fair Value$11.89
Current Price$1.55
Upside667.30%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS16.48%0.00%0.070.070.080.040.050.030.020.000.000.28
YoY Growth--2.64%-14.46%99.14%-23.10%59.50%101.05%0.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.91%3.81%3.59%2.06%3.22%1.59%0.69%0.00%0.00%20.58%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)276.23
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)65.75
(=) Cash Retained (M)210.48
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)55.2534.5320.72
Cash Retained (M)210.48210.48210.48
(-) Cash Required (M)-55.25-34.53-20.72
(=) Excess Retained (M)155.24175.95189.76
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)620.94620.94620.94
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.250.280.31
LTM Dividend per Share0.110.110.11
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.250.280.31
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.360.390.41
WACC / Discount Rate6.35%6.35%6.35%
Growth Rate1.95%2.95%3.95%
Fair Value$8.24$11.78$17.81
Upside / Downside431.82%660.06%1,049.12%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)276.23284.38292.78301.43310.33319.49329.08
Payout Ratio23.80%37.04%50.28%63.52%76.76%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)65.75105.34147.21191.47238.21287.54304.40

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.35%6.35%6.35%
Growth Rate1.95%2.95%3.95%
Year 1 PV (M)98.0899.05100.01
Year 2 PV (M)127.63130.15132.69
Year 3 PV (M)154.57159.16163.84
Year 4 PV (M)179.05186.18193.52
Year 5 PV (M)201.25211.31221.78
PV of Terminal Value (M)6,351.066,668.706,998.93
Equity Value (M)7,111.647,454.557,810.76
Shares Outstanding (M)620.94620.94620.94
Fair Value$11.45$12.01$12.58
Upside / Downside638.90%674.53%711.54%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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