Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Consun Pharmaceutical Group Limited (1681.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$181.22 - $441.82$414.05
Multi-Stage$65.25 - $71.37$68.26
Blended Fair Value$241.15
Current Price$10.33
Upside2,234.49%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS24.72%33.45%0.820.390.150.240.160.270.080.210.140.03
YoY Growth--108.60%155.90%-35.64%50.64%-41.70%227.15%-60.20%51.28%308.97%-26.32%
Dividend Yield--10.71%9.09%4.29%6.66%6.16%6.56%2.08%3.45%4.00%0.79%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,845.40
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,031.94
(=) Cash Retained (M)813.45
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)369.08230.67138.40
Cash Retained (M)813.45813.45813.45
(-) Cash Required (M)-369.08-230.67-138.40
(=) Excess Retained (M)444.37582.78675.05
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)830.67830.67830.67
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.530.700.81
LTM Dividend per Share1.241.241.24
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.530.700.81
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.781.942.05
WACC / Discount Rate6.53%6.53%6.53%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$181.22$414.05$441.82
Upside / Downside1,654.33%3,908.20%4,177.03%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,845.401,965.352,093.102,229.152,374.042,528.352,604.20
Payout Ratio55.92%62.74%69.55%76.37%83.18%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,031.941,232.981,455.791,702.351,974.822,275.522,408.89

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.53%6.53%6.53%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,146.481,157.351,168.22
Year 2 PV (M)1,258.701,282.671,306.87
Year 3 PV (M)1,368.631,407.921,447.95
Year 4 PV (M)1,476.301,533.081,591.47
Year 5 PV (M)1,581.761,658.161,737.48
PV of Terminal Value (M)47,372.9849,661.1152,036.82
Equity Value (M)54,204.8556,700.2959,288.82
Shares Outstanding (M)830.67830.67830.67
Fair Value$65.25$68.26$71.37
Upside / Downside531.70%560.78%590.95%

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