Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $14.66 - $30.16 | $20.59 |
| Multi-Stage | $22.04 - $24.21 | $23.10 |
| Blended Fair Value | $21.85 | |
| Current Price | $4.50 | |
| Upside | 385.45% | |
| Decision | Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | -0.20% | 3.61% | 0.18 | 0.16 | 0.16 | 0.16 | 0.16 | 0.18 | 0.17 | 0.16 | 0.15 | 0.14 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | 12.50% | -0.98% | 0.00% | 0.00% | -11.11% | 5.88% | 6.25% | 6.67% | 7.14% | 12.00% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 3.66% | 2.67% | 3.21% | 2.35% | 3.92% | 2.63% | 1.89% | 1.71% | 1.17% | 1.31% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 1,082.50 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 431.18 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 651.32 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 216.50 | 135.31 | 81.19 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 651.32 | 651.32 | 651.32 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -216.50 | -135.31 | -81.19 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 434.82 | 516.00 | 570.13 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 1,280.78 | 1,280.78 | 1,280.78 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 0.34 | 0.40 | 0.45 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 0.34 | 0.34 | 0.34 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 0.34 | 0.40 | 0.45 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 0.68 | 0.74 | 0.78 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.30% | 6.30% | 6.30% |
| Growth Rate | 1.61% | 2.61% | 3.61% |
| Fair Value | $14.66 | $20.59 | $30.16 |
| Upside / Downside | 225.80% | 357.47% | 570.11% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 1,082.50 | 1,110.77 | 1,139.77 | 1,169.53 | 1,200.07 | 1,231.41 | 1,268.35 |
| Payout Ratio | 39.83% | 49.87% | 59.90% | 69.93% | 79.97% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 431.18 | 553.89 | 682.71 | 817.89 | 959.65 | 1,108.27 | 1,173.22 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.30% | 6.30% | 6.30% |
| Growth Rate | 1.61% | 2.61% | 3.61% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 516.00 | 521.08 | 526.15 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 592.50 | 604.22 | 616.05 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 661.25 | 680.97 | 701.07 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 722.79 | 751.66 | 781.40 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 777.61 | 816.64 | 857.22 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 24,964.52 | 26,217.37 | 27,520.02 |
| Equity Value (M) | 28,234.67 | 29,591.93 | 31,001.91 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 1,280.78 | 1,280.78 | 1,280.78 |
| Fair Value | $22.04 | $23.10 | $24.21 |
| Upside / Downside | 389.89% | 413.43% | 437.90% |
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