Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Tian Lun Gas Holdings Limited (1600.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Regulated GasSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$6.94 - $10.78$8.72
Multi-Stage$16.11 - $17.74$16.91
Blended Fair Value$12.81
Current Price$2.96
Upside332.92%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-4.33%0.00%0.180.160.230.300.240.220.080.080.080.00
YoY Growth--11.22%-31.56%-22.90%23.11%10.94%178.87%-2.15%5.98%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--4.94%4.18%6.69%4.35%3.86%3.51%1.39%1.56%1.18%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)714.19
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)322.51
(=) Cash Retained (M)391.68
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)142.8489.2753.56
Cash Retained (M)391.68391.68391.68
(-) Cash Required (M)-142.84-89.27-53.56
(=) Excess Retained (M)248.84302.41338.12
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)969.07969.07969.07
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.260.310.35
LTM Dividend per Share0.330.330.33
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.260.310.35
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.590.640.68
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$6.94$8.72$10.78
Upside / Downside134.56%194.56%264.29%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)714.19707.05699.98692.98686.05679.19699.57
Payout Ratio45.16%54.13%63.09%72.06%81.03%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)322.51382.70441.65499.38555.92611.27647.10

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)356.30359.94363.58
Year 2 PV (M)382.83390.69398.62
Year 3 PV (M)403.03415.49428.21
Year 4 PV (M)417.71435.02452.87
Year 5 PV (M)427.63449.90473.08
PV of Terminal Value (M)13,626.2714,335.8215,074.63
Equity Value (M)15,613.7716,386.8617,190.98
Shares Outstanding (M)969.07969.07969.07
Fair Value$16.11$16.91$17.74
Upside / Downside444.33%471.28%499.32%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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