Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Xtep International Holdings Limited (1368.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Apparel - RetailSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$31.21 - $151.20$67.10
Multi-Stage$16.87 - $18.45$17.65
Blended Fair Value$42.37
Current Price$5.14
Upside724.40%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS27.03%17.50%0.530.170.200.130.100.160.170.100.120.12
YoY Growth--207.97%-14.83%54.41%27.71%-36.05%-4.98%69.59%-17.78%4.01%10.07%
Dividend Yield--10.05%4.33%2.65%1.24%3.16%4.35%4.55%3.94%4.16%3.38%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,059.78
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)737.75
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,322.03
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)411.96257.47154.48
Cash Retained (M)1,322.031,322.031,322.03
(-) Cash Required (M)-411.96-257.47-154.48
(=) Excess Retained (M)910.071,064.561,167.54
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,709.162,709.162,709.16
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.340.390.43
LTM Dividend per Share0.270.270.27
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.340.390.43
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.610.670.70
WACC / Discount Rate7.56%7.56%7.56%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$31.21$67.10$151.20
Upside / Downside507.24%1,205.44%2,841.73%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,059.782,193.662,336.252,488.112,649.842,822.072,906.74
Payout Ratio35.82%46.65%57.49%68.33%79.16%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)737.751,023.421,343.121,700.042,097.702,539.872,688.73

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.56%7.56%7.56%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)942.59951.53960.46
Year 2 PV (M)1,139.331,161.031,182.94
Year 3 PV (M)1,328.211,366.341,405.19
Year 4 PV (M)1,509.451,567.501,627.20
Year 5 PV (M)1,683.271,764.571,848.99
PV of Terminal Value (M)39,112.5741,001.7242,963.18
Equity Value (M)45,715.4247,812.6949,987.96
Shares Outstanding (M)2,709.162,709.162,709.16
Fair Value$16.87$17.65$18.45
Upside / Downside228.30%243.36%258.98%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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