Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $34.88 - $58.48 | $45.24 |
| Multi-Stage | $71.82 - $78.82 | $75.25 |
| Blended Fair Value | $60.25 | |
| Current Price | $30.15 | |
| Upside | 99.82% | |
| Decision | Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | 24.57% | 1.59% | 1.49 | 0.80 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.80 | 0.50 | 1.69 | 2.19 | 1.64 | 1.50 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | 87.50% | 60.00% | 0.00% | -37.50% | 60.00% | -70.59% | -22.73% | 33.29% | 9.44% | 17.71% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 3.40% | 2.71% | 2.38% | 2.47% | 3.70% | 2.91% | 7.38% | 6.72% | 4.36% | 3.94% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 1,179.03 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 1,074.11 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 104.92 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 235.81 | 147.38 | 88.43 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 104.92 | 104.92 | 104.92 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -235.81 | -147.38 | -88.43 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | -130.89 | -42.46 | 16.49 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 399.16 | 399.16 | 399.16 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | -0.33 | -0.11 | 0.04 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 2.69 | 2.69 | 2.69 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | -0.33 | -0.11 | 0.04 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 2.36 | 2.58 | 2.73 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.34% | 6.34% | 6.34% |
| Growth Rate | -0.41% | 0.59% | 1.59% |
| Fair Value | $34.88 | $45.24 | $58.48 |
| Upside / Downside | 15.69% | 50.05% | 93.96% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 1,179.03 | 1,185.97 | 1,192.96 | 1,199.99 | 1,207.06 | 1,214.17 | 1,250.60 |
| Payout Ratio | 91.10% | 90.88% | 90.66% | 90.44% | 90.22% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 1,074.11 | 1,077.83 | 1,081.55 | 1,085.28 | 1,089.01 | 1,092.76 | 1,156.80 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.34% | 6.34% | 6.34% |
| Growth Rate | -0.41% | 0.59% | 1.59% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 1,003.53 | 1,013.61 | 1,023.68 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 937.58 | 956.51 | 975.62 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 875.97 | 902.62 | 929.81 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 818.39 | 851.76 | 886.14 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 764.60 | 803.77 | 844.52 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 24,265.96 | 25,508.98 | 26,802.42 |
| Equity Value (M) | 28,666.04 | 30,037.24 | 31,462.20 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 399.16 | 399.16 | 399.16 |
| Fair Value | $71.82 | $75.25 | $78.82 |
| Upside / Downside | 138.19% | 149.59% | 161.43% |
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