Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $7.52 - $11.65 | $9.43 |
| Multi-Stage | $17.76 - $19.54 | $18.63 |
| Blended Fair Value | $14.03 | |
| Current Price | $3.41 | |
| Upside | 311.55% | |
| Decision | Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | -8.22% | 0.83% | 0.33 | 0.29 | 0.28 | 0.37 | 0.44 | 0.51 | 0.41 | 0.35 | 0.36 | 0.35 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | 14.25% | 2.24% | -23.64% | -14.34% | -14.77% | 23.65% | 17.64% | -2.48% | 4.30% | 12.78% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 9.16% | 7.62% | 8.57% | 10.50% | 9.78% | 8.99% | 7.13% | 6.67% | 9.21% | 7.21% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 963.29 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 641.60 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 321.69 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 192.66 | 120.41 | 72.25 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 321.69 | 321.69 | 321.69 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -192.66 | -120.41 | -72.25 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 129.03 | 201.28 | 249.44 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 1,197.49 | 1,197.49 | 1,197.49 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 0.11 | 0.17 | 0.21 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 0.54 | 0.54 | 0.54 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 0.11 | 0.17 | 0.21 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 0.64 | 0.70 | 0.74 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.34% | 6.34% | 6.34% |
| Growth Rate | -2.05% | -1.05% | -0.05% |
| Fair Value | $7.52 | $9.43 | $11.65 |
| Upside / Downside | 120.51% | 176.65% | 241.70% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 963.29 | 953.21 | 943.23 | 933.36 | 923.60 | 913.93 | 941.35 |
| Payout Ratio | 66.61% | 71.28% | 75.96% | 80.64% | 85.32% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 641.60 | 679.49 | 716.51 | 752.68 | 788.02 | 822.54 | 870.75 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.34% | 6.34% | 6.34% |
| Growth Rate | -2.05% | -1.05% | -0.05% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 632.54 | 639.00 | 645.45 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 620.92 | 633.66 | 646.53 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 607.20 | 625.98 | 645.15 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 591.78 | 616.32 | 641.61 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 575.02 | 604.98 | 636.17 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 18,243.53 | 19,193.97 | 20,183.62 |
| Equity Value (M) | 21,270.98 | 22,313.91 | 23,398.54 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 1,197.49 | 1,197.49 | 1,197.49 |
| Fair Value | $17.76 | $18.63 | $19.54 |
| Upside / Downside | 420.91% | 446.45% | 473.01% |
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