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Definitive Analysis

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Goodbaby International Holdings Limited (1086.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: LeisureSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3.44 - $5.26$4.29
Multi-Stage$7.29 - $8.03$7.65
Blended Fair Value$5.97
Current Price$1.05
Upside468.65%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.000.000.000.000.000.050.030.030.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%49.24%0.37%0.00%-100.00%
Dividend Yield--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%2.02%0.76%0.90%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)639.72
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)116.78
(=) Cash Retained (M)522.94
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)127.9479.9647.98
Cash Retained (M)522.94522.94522.94
(-) Cash Required (M)-127.94-79.96-47.98
(=) Excess Retained (M)395.00442.98474.96
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,675.711,675.711,675.71
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.240.260.28
LTM Dividend per Share0.070.070.07
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.240.260.28
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.310.330.35
WACC / Discount Rate6.71%6.71%6.71%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$3.44$4.29$5.26
Upside / Downside227.37%308.64%401.41%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)639.72633.32626.99620.72614.51608.37626.62
Payout Ratio18.25%32.60%46.95%61.30%75.65%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)116.78206.48294.39380.51464.88547.53579.62

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.71%6.71%6.71%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)191.55193.51195.46
Year 2 PV (M)253.34258.54263.79
Year 3 PV (M)303.78313.17322.76
Year 4 PV (M)344.29358.56373.27
Year 5 PV (M)376.18395.76416.16
PV of Terminal Value (M)10,741.6411,300.9811,883.39
Equity Value (M)12,210.7912,820.5313,454.83
Shares Outstanding (M)1,675.711,675.711,675.71
Fair Value$7.29$7.65$8.03
Upside / Downside593.99%628.65%664.70%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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