Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $46.65 - $70.58 | $57.92 |
| Multi-Stage | $68.05 - $74.54 | $71.23 |
| Blended Fair Value | $64.57 | |
| Current Price | $49.33 | |
| Upside | 30.90% | |
| Decision | Don't Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | 2.28% | 2.78% | 2.42 | 2.47 | 2.33 | 2.25 | 2.26 | 2.17 | 2.14 | 2.06 | 2.06 | 1.94 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | -1.81% | 5.86% | 3.49% | -0.15% | 4.23% | 1.19% | 3.69% | 0.41% | 5.92% | 5.31% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 4.92% | 3.48% | 3.40% | 2.92% | 3.92% | 3.39% | 3.97% | 4.50% | 3.79% | 2.72% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 2,919.50 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 1,331.80 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 1,587.70 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 583.90 | 364.94 | 218.96 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 1,587.70 | 1,587.70 | 1,587.70 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -583.90 | -364.94 | -218.96 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 1,003.80 | 1,222.76 | 1,368.74 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 552.08 | 552.08 | 552.08 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 1.82 | 2.21 | 2.48 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 2.41 | 2.41 | 2.41 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 1.82 | 2.21 | 2.48 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 4.23 | 4.63 | 4.89 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | 0.03% | 1.03% | 2.03% |
| Fair Value | $46.65 | $57.92 | $70.58 |
| Upside / Downside | -5.43% | 17.41% | 43.07% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 2,919.50 | 2,949.47 | 2,979.75 | 3,010.34 | 3,041.25 | 3,072.47 | 3,164.64 |
| Payout Ratio | 45.62% | 54.49% | 63.37% | 72.25% | 81.12% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 1,331.80 | 1,607.28 | 1,888.28 | 2,174.88 | 2,467.17 | 2,765.22 | 2,927.30 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | 0.03% | 1.03% | 2.03% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 1,458.66 | 1,473.25 | 1,487.83 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 1,555.22 | 1,586.48 | 1,618.04 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 1,625.64 | 1,674.89 | 1,725.12 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 1,673.59 | 1,741.53 | 1,811.51 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 1,702.34 | 1,789.15 | 1,879.47 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 29,552.49 | 31,059.55 | 32,627.48 |
| Equity Value (M) | 37,567.95 | 39,324.84 | 41,149.45 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 552.08 | 552.08 | 552.08 |
| Fair Value | $68.05 | $71.23 | $74.54 |
| Upside / Downside | 37.95% | 44.40% | 51.10% |
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