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Definitive Analysis

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Mondelez International, Inc. (0R0G.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Food ConfectionersSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$284.73 - $535.28$501.64
Multi-Stage$85.66 - $93.68$89.60
Blended Fair Value$295.62
Current Price$62.47
Upside373.22%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS8.78%9.32%1.791.651.511.391.281.181.040.910.830.77
YoY Growth--8.75%8.82%8.71%8.82%8.82%13.47%13.44%9.51%8.53%4.56%
Dividend Yield--2.64%2.36%2.17%2.22%2.19%2.35%2.08%2.19%1.94%1.92%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,531.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,469.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,062.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)706.20441.38264.83
Cash Retained (M)1,062.001,062.001,062.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-706.20-441.38-264.83
(=) Excess Retained (M)355.80620.63797.18
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,311.881,311.881,311.88
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.270.470.61
LTM Dividend per Share1.881.881.88
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.270.470.61
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.152.362.49
WACC / Discount Rate6.30%6.30%6.30%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$284.73$501.64$535.28
Upside / Downside355.79%703.01%756.87%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,531.003,760.524,004.954,265.274,542.514,837.784,982.91
Payout Ratio69.92%73.94%77.95%81.97%85.98%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,469.002,780.483,122.023,496.223,905.874,354.004,609.19

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.30%6.30%6.30%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)2,591.182,615.752,640.31
Year 2 PV (M)2,711.402,763.042,815.17
Year 3 PV (M)2,829.662,910.892,993.65
Year 4 PV (M)2,945.993,059.283,175.81
Year 5 PV (M)3,060.423,208.233,361.71
PV of Terminal Value (M)98,239.85102,984.88107,911.50
Equity Value (M)112,378.49117,542.06122,898.16
Shares Outstanding (M)1,311.881,311.881,311.88
Fair Value$85.66$89.60$93.68
Upside / Downside37.13%43.43%49.96%

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