Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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ConocoPhillips (0QZA.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas EnergySector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$314.97 - $1,413.64$732.17
Multi-Stage$170.02 - $185.93$177.83
Blended Fair Value$455.00
Current Price$94.59
Upside381.02%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS19.44%0.34%2.944.504.621.901.481.211.101.051.012.95
YoY Growth---34.69%-2.50%142.73%28.84%22.07%10.05%4.44%4.15%-65.80%3.94%
Dividend Yield--2.80%3.50%4.65%1.90%2.79%3.93%1.62%1.77%2.03%7.34%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)8,830.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)3,854.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)4,976.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,766.001,103.75662.25
Cash Retained (M)4,976.004,976.004,976.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,766.00-1,103.75-662.25
(=) Excess Retained (M)3,210.003,872.254,313.75
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,240.401,240.401,240.40
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.593.123.48
LTM Dividend per Share3.113.113.11
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.593.123.48
(=) Adjusted Dividend5.696.236.58
WACC / Discount Rate7.25%7.25%7.25%
Growth Rate5.34%6.34%7.34%
Fair Value$314.97$732.17$1,413.64
Upside / Downside232.98%674.04%1,394.50%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)8,830.009,390.009,985.5210,618.8011,292.2512,008.4112,368.66
Payout Ratio43.65%52.92%62.19%71.46%80.73%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)3,854.004,968.946,209.797,588.069,116.1610,807.5711,441.01

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.25%7.25%7.25%
Growth Rate5.34%6.34%7.34%
Year 1 PV (M)4,589.624,633.184,676.75
Year 2 PV (M)5,297.895,398.955,500.96
Year 3 PV (M)5,979.556,151.466,326.64
Year 4 PV (M)6,635.336,890.907,153.77
Year 5 PV (M)7,265.937,617.427,982.37
PV of Terminal Value (M)181,123.05189,884.72198,982.24
Equity Value (M)210,891.36220,576.63230,622.74
Shares Outstanding (M)1,240.401,240.401,240.40
Fair Value$170.02$177.83$185.93
Upside / Downside79.74%88.00%96.56%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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