Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $21.95 - $30.24 | $26.13 |
| Multi-Stage | $39.55 - $43.58 | $41.52 |
| Blended Fair Value | $33.83 | |
| Current Price | $27.90 | |
| Upside | 21.24% | |
| Decision | Don't Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | -17.40% | -9.16% | 0.74 | 0.78 | 0.75 | 0.75 | 0.55 | 1.91 | 1.98 | 2.03 | 2.03 | 2.01 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | -5.28% | 3.36% | 0.82% | 35.75% | -71.30% | -3.49% | -2.40% | -0.18% | 1.23% | 4.60% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 2.91% | 1.78% | 1.98% | 1.91% | 1.50% | 10.67% | 5.36% | 4.83% | 3.38% | 4.16% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 501.15 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 88.06 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 413.09 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 100.23 | 62.64 | 37.59 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 413.09 | 413.09 | 413.09 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -100.23 | -62.64 | -37.59 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 312.86 | 350.45 | 375.50 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 124.03 | 124.03 | 124.03 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 2.52 | 2.83 | 3.03 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 0.71 | 0.71 | 0.71 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 2.52 | 2.83 | 3.03 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 3.23 | 3.54 | 3.74 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | -4.90% | -3.90% | -2.90% |
| Fair Value | $21.95 | $26.13 | $30.24 |
| Upside / Downside | -21.31% | -6.34% | 8.38% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 501.15 | 481.58 | 462.79 | 444.72 | 427.36 | 410.68 | 423.00 |
| Payout Ratio | 17.57% | 32.06% | 46.54% | 61.03% | 75.51% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 88.06 | 154.38 | 215.39 | 271.41 | 322.72 | 369.61 | 391.27 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | -4.90% | -3.90% | -2.90% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 140.03 | 141.51 | 142.98 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 177.22 | 180.97 | 184.75 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 202.55 | 209.01 | 215.60 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 218.47 | 227.80 | 237.43 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 226.96 | 239.14 | 251.85 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 3,939.98 | 4,151.54 | 4,372.10 |
| Equity Value (M) | 4,905.22 | 5,149.98 | 5,404.72 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 124.03 | 124.03 | 124.03 |
| Fair Value | $39.55 | $41.52 | $43.58 |
| Upside / Downside | 41.75% | 48.82% | 56.19% |
| Ticker ⇵ | Company ⇵ | Dividend Yield % ▼ | Dividend Per Share ⇵ | Payout Ratio % ⇵ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EMTK.JK | PT Elang Mahkota Teknologi Tbk | 3.98% | $43.78 | 48.47% |
| HOLN.SW | Holcim Ltd | 3.98% | $3.10 | 11.12% |
| TQ5.SI | Frasers Property Limited | 3.98% | $0.05 | 60.69% |
| 007860.KS | Seoyon Co., Ltd. | 3.97% | $381.92 | 8.19% |
| 3217.TWO | Argosy Research Inc. | 3.97% | $6.40 | 54.14% |
| 5434.TW | Topco Scientific Co.,Ltd. | 3.97% | $11.76 | 59.09% |
| ALTXC.PA | TXCOM Group | 3.97% | $0.30 | 35.01% |
| MND.AX | Monadelphous Group Limited | 3.97% | $1.05 | 72.16% |
| MXI.AX | MaxiPARTS Limited | 3.97% | $0.09 | 46.30% |
| 027410.KS | BGF Co., Ltd. | 3.96% | $152.83 | 25.29% |
| CNT.BK | Christiani & Nielsen (Thai) Public Company Limited | 3.96% | $0.04 | 56.47% |
| UCID.JK | PT Uni-Charm Indonesia Tbk | 3.96% | $16.86 | 78.76% |
| 002758.SZ | ZJAMP Group Co., Ltd. | 3.95% | $0.40 | 46.30% |
| 4065.KL | PPB Group Berhad | 3.95% | $0.42 | 72.75% |
| 600585.SS | Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited | 3.95% | $0.86 | 51.83% |
| 8464.TW | Nien Made Enterprise Co., Ltd. | 3.95% | $14.49 | 64.65% |
| BRFS3.SA | BRF S.A. | 3.95% | $0.71 | 31.92% |
| F34.SI | Wilmar International Limited | 3.95% | $0.12 | 63.66% |
| 000848.SZ | Cheng De Lolo Company Limited | 3.94% | $0.33 | 55.15% |
| 6412.T | Heiwa Corporation | 3.94% | $80.00 | 63.34% |
| DSFIR.AS | DSM-Firmenich AG | 3.94% | $2.71 | 99.44% |
| NDT.MI | Neodecortech S.p.A. | 3.94% | $0.15 | 28.43% |
| TCSG.ME | TCS Group Holding PLC | 3.94% | $129.27 | 21.76% |
| 001720.KS | Shinyoung Securities Co., Ltd. | 3.93% | $5,219.58 | 32.99% |
| 0UKH.L | Bank of Montreal | 3.93% | $7.04 | 57.77% |
| 282330.KS | BGF retail Co. Ltd. | 3.93% | $4,100.00 | 37.49% |
| 4953.TWO | WITS Corp. | 3.93% | $4.91 | 84.65% |
| 601528.SS | Zhejiang Shaoxing RuiFeng Rural Commercial Bank Co.,Ltd | 3.93% | $0.22 | 21.93% |
| 601789.SS | Ningbo Construction Co., Ltd. | 3.93% | $0.20 | 78.65% |
| EMA | Emera Incorporated | 3.93% | $1.93 | 49.45% |
| TSPC.JK | PT Tempo Scan Pacific Tbk | 3.93% | $111.90 | 33.61% |
| TTALO.HE | Terveystalo Oyj | 3.93% | $0.38 | 55.32% |
| 003012.SZ | Guangdong Dongpeng Holdings Co., Ltd. | 3.92% | $0.26 | 78.10% |
| 300181.SZ | Zhejiang Jolly Pharmaceutical Co.,LTD | 3.92% | $0.63 | 73.60% |
| 6491.TW | Pegavision Corporation | 3.92% | $11.02 | 53.82% |
| 82800.HK | Tracker Fund of Hong Kong | 3.92% | $0.93 | 12.85% |
| DR0.DE | Deutsche Rohstoff AG | 3.92% | $1.96 | 26.92% |
| SIRIP.BK | Siri Prime Office Property Fund | 3.92% | $0.28 | 44.51% |
| SJR | Shaw Communications Inc. | 3.92% | $1.18 | 80.43% |
| 1437.TW | GTM Holdings Corporation | 3.91% | $1.35 | 64.33% |
| 234080.KS | JW Lifescience Corporation | 3.91% | $501.22 | 16.27% |
| 3693.TWO | AIC Inc. | 3.91% | $10.92 | 61.94% |
| 4863.KL | Telekom Malaysia Berhad | 3.91% | $0.31 | 59.49% |
| PBP.AX | Probiotec Limited | 3.91% | $0.12 | 41.70% |
| SUZB3.SA | Suzano S.A. | 3.91% | $2.03 | 38.32% |
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| EUX.F | Euwax AG | 3.90% | $1.85 | 82.61% |
| TPIPP-R.BK | TPI Polene Power Public Company Limited | 3.90% | $0.07 | 20.67% |
| 0R9H.L | Banca Sistema S.p.A. | 3.89% | $0.07 | 15.44% |