Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $650.43 - $1,678.44 | $1,572.94 |
| Multi-Stage | $250.01 - $273.09 | $261.34 |
| Blended Fair Value | $917.14 | |
| Current Price | $91.40 | |
| Upside | 903.44% | |
| Decision | Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | 22.67% | 0.00% | 8.02 | 8.29 | 7.59 | 6.95 | 2.81 | 2.89 | 2.86 | 0.85 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | -3.28% | 9.18% | 9.21% | 147.37% | -2.63% | 1.06% | 236.73% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 6.55% | 6.51% | 3.54% | 3.33% | 0.57% | 2.65% | 2.89% | 0.28% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 65.69 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 62.23 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 3.45 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 13.14 | 8.21 | 4.93 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 3.45 | 3.45 | 3.45 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -13.14 | -8.21 | -4.93 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | -9.68 | -4.76 | -1.47 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 7.78 | 7.78 | 7.78 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | -1.24 | -0.61 | -0.19 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 8.00 | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | -1.24 | -0.61 | -0.19 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 6.75 | 7.38 | 7.81 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.60% | 6.60% | 6.60% |
| Growth Rate | 5.50% | 6.50% | 7.50% |
| Fair Value | $650.43 | $1,572.94 | $1,678.44 |
| Upside / Downside | 611.63% | 1,620.95% | 1,736.37% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 65.69 | 69.96 | 74.50 | 79.35 | 84.50 | 90.00 | 92.70 |
| Payout Ratio | 94.74% | 93.79% | 92.84% | 91.90% | 90.95% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 62.23 | 65.61 | 69.17 | 72.92 | 76.85 | 81.00 | 85.74 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.60% | 6.60% | 6.60% |
| Growth Rate | 5.50% | 6.50% | 7.50% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 60.98 | 61.55 | 62.13 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 59.74 | 60.88 | 62.03 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 58.52 | 60.20 | 61.91 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 57.32 | 59.53 | 61.79 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 56.14 | 58.85 | 61.67 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 1,653.15 | 1,733.00 | 1,815.90 |
| Equity Value (M) | 1,945.86 | 2,034.02 | 2,125.44 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 7.78 | 7.78 | 7.78 |
| Fair Value | $250.01 | $261.34 | $273.09 |
| Upside / Downside | 173.54% | 185.93% | 198.78% |
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