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Definitive Analysis

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Roche Holding AG (0QQ6.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - GeneralSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$206.60 - $328.31$262.01
Multi-Stage$468.96 - $515.57$491.81
Blended Fair Value$376.91
Current Price$258.40
Upside45.86%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.53%1.31%9.529.459.279.689.599.279.038.898.768.66
YoY Growth--0.79%1.93%-4.21%0.95%3.37%2.70%1.58%1.42%1.24%3.51%
Dividend Yield--3.73%3.86%3.19%2.55%3.10%2.95%3.62%3.61%3.77%3.13%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)16,343.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)11,542.50
(=) Cash Retained (M)4,800.50
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)3,268.602,042.881,225.73
Cash Retained (M)4,800.504,800.504,800.50
(-) Cash Required (M)-3,268.60-2,042.88-1,225.73
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,531.902,757.633,574.78
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)803.25803.25803.25
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.913.434.45
LTM Dividend per Share14.3714.3714.37
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.913.434.45
(=) Adjusted Dividend16.2817.8018.82
WACC / Discount Rate6.30%6.30%6.30%
Growth Rate-1.47%-0.47%0.53%
Fair Value$206.60$262.01$328.31
Upside / Downside-20.05%1.40%27.05%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)16,343.0016,266.8316,191.0216,115.5616,040.4515,965.6916,444.66
Payout Ratio70.63%74.50%78.38%82.25%86.13%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)11,542.5012,118.9912,689.8613,255.1513,814.8914,369.1215,211.31

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.30%6.30%6.30%
Growth Rate-1.47%-0.47%0.53%
Year 1 PV (M)11,286.5211,401.0711,515.61
Year 2 PV (M)11,006.3711,230.9011,457.71
Year 3 PV (M)10,706.9411,036.2411,372.23
Year 4 PV (M)10,392.5410,820.8911,262.35
Year 5 PV (M)10,066.9510,588.2611,130.95
PV of Terminal Value (M)323,230.33339,968.63357,393.28
Equity Value (M)376,689.64395,045.99414,132.13
Shares Outstanding (M)803.25803.25803.25
Fair Value$468.96$491.81$515.57
Upside / Downside81.48%90.33%99.52%

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