Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $8.95 - $14.24 | $11.36 |
| Multi-Stage | $17.76 - $19.52 | $18.63 |
| Blended Fair Value | $14.99 | |
| Current Price | $6.34 | |
| Upside | 136.46% | |
| Decision | Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | -6.63% | 9.04% | 0.30 | 0.41 | 0.40 | 0.42 | 0.32 | 0.42 | 0.39 | 0.43 | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | -27.01% | 2.90% | -5.98% | 31.21% | -23.41% | 7.68% | -9.81% | 70.38% | 1.78% | 98.90% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 6.22% | 8.49% | 6.15% | 5.91% | 4.43% | 6.27% | 6.41% | 6.83% | 3.53% | 4.86% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 52.18 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 29.67 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 22.50 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 10.44 | 6.52 | 3.91 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 22.50 | 22.50 | 22.50 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -10.44 | -6.52 | -3.91 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 12.07 | 15.98 | 18.59 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 59.70 | 59.70 | 59.70 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 0.20 | 0.27 | 0.31 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 0.20 | 0.27 | 0.31 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 0.70 | 0.76 | 0.81 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.78% | 6.78% | 6.78% |
| Growth Rate | -0.95% | 0.05% | 1.05% |
| Fair Value | $8.95 | $11.36 | $14.24 |
| Upside / Downside | 41.20% | 79.15% | 124.63% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 52.18 | 52.20 | 52.22 | 52.25 | 52.27 | 52.30 | 53.87 |
| Payout Ratio | 56.87% | 63.49% | 70.12% | 76.75% | 83.37% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 29.67 | 33.14 | 36.62 | 40.10 | 43.58 | 47.07 | 49.83 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.78% | 6.78% | 6.78% |
| Growth Rate | -0.95% | 0.05% | 1.05% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 30.73 | 31.04 | 31.35 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 31.48 | 32.12 | 32.76 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 31.95 | 32.93 | 33.93 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 32.20 | 33.52 | 34.88 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 32.24 | 33.90 | 35.63 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 901.88 | 948.34 | 996.69 |
| Equity Value (M) | 1,060.48 | 1,111.85 | 1,165.24 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 59.70 | 59.70 | 59.70 |
| Fair Value | $17.76 | $18.63 | $19.52 |
| Upside / Downside | 180.20% | 193.77% | 207.88% |
| Ticker ⇵ | Company ⇵ | Dividend Yield % ▼ | Dividend Per Share ⇵ | Payout Ratio % ⇵ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EMTK.JK | PT Elang Mahkota Teknologi Tbk | 3.98% | $43.78 | 48.47% |
| HOLN.SW | Holcim Ltd | 3.98% | $3.10 | 11.12% |
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| 3217.TWO | Argosy Research Inc. | 3.97% | $6.40 | 54.14% |
| 5434.TW | Topco Scientific Co.,Ltd. | 3.97% | $11.76 | 59.09% |
| ALTXC.PA | TXCOM Group | 3.97% | $0.30 | 35.01% |
| MND.AX | Monadelphous Group Limited | 3.97% | $1.05 | 72.16% |
| MXI.AX | MaxiPARTS Limited | 3.97% | $0.09 | 46.30% |
| 027410.KS | BGF Co., Ltd. | 3.96% | $152.83 | 25.29% |
| CNT.BK | Christiani & Nielsen (Thai) Public Company Limited | 3.96% | $0.04 | 56.47% |
| UCID.JK | PT Uni-Charm Indonesia Tbk | 3.96% | $16.86 | 78.76% |
| 002758.SZ | ZJAMP Group Co., Ltd. | 3.95% | $0.40 | 46.30% |
| 4065.KL | PPB Group Berhad | 3.95% | $0.42 | 72.75% |
| 600585.SS | Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited | 3.95% | $0.86 | 51.83% |
| 8464.TW | Nien Made Enterprise Co., Ltd. | 3.95% | $14.49 | 64.65% |
| BRFS3.SA | BRF S.A. | 3.95% | $0.71 | 31.92% |
| F34.SI | Wilmar International Limited | 3.95% | $0.12 | 63.66% |
| 000848.SZ | Cheng De Lolo Company Limited | 3.94% | $0.33 | 55.15% |
| 6412.T | Heiwa Corporation | 3.94% | $80.00 | 63.34% |
| DSFIR.AS | DSM-Firmenich AG | 3.94% | $2.71 | 99.44% |
| NDT.MI | Neodecortech S.p.A. | 3.94% | $0.15 | 28.43% |
| TCSG.ME | TCS Group Holding PLC | 3.94% | $129.27 | 21.76% |
| 001720.KS | Shinyoung Securities Co., Ltd. | 3.93% | $5,219.58 | 32.99% |
| 0UKH.L | Bank of Montreal | 3.93% | $7.04 | 57.77% |
| 282330.KS | BGF retail Co. Ltd. | 3.93% | $4,100.00 | 37.49% |
| 4953.TWO | WITS Corp. | 3.93% | $4.91 | 84.65% |
| 601528.SS | Zhejiang Shaoxing RuiFeng Rural Commercial Bank Co.,Ltd | 3.93% | $0.22 | 21.93% |
| 601789.SS | Ningbo Construction Co., Ltd. | 3.93% | $0.20 | 78.65% |
| EMA | Emera Incorporated | 3.93% | $1.93 | 49.45% |
| TSPC.JK | PT Tempo Scan Pacific Tbk | 3.93% | $111.90 | 33.61% |
| TTALO.HE | Terveystalo Oyj | 3.93% | $0.38 | 55.32% |
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| 300181.SZ | Zhejiang Jolly Pharmaceutical Co.,LTD | 3.92% | $0.63 | 73.60% |
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| SIRIP.BK | Siri Prime Office Property Fund | 3.92% | $0.28 | 44.51% |
| SJR | Shaw Communications Inc. | 3.92% | $1.18 | 80.43% |
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| 3693.TWO | AIC Inc. | 3.91% | $10.92 | 61.94% |
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