Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Xcel Energy Inc. (0M1R.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: General UtilitiesSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$141.04 - $650.31$318.58
Multi-Stage$99.94 - $109.40$104.58
Blended Fair Value$211.58
Current Price$80.65
Upside162.35%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS8.24%7.67%2.031.891.751.611.481.371.261.241.171.05
YoY Growth--7.60%7.91%8.24%9.23%8.22%8.36%1.25%5.95%12.19%8.04%
Dividend Yield--2.87%3.54%2.59%2.24%2.22%2.26%2.27%2.74%2.64%2.50%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,915.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,258.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)657.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)383.00239.38143.63
Cash Retained (M)657.00657.00657.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-383.00-239.38-143.63
(=) Excess Retained (M)274.00417.63513.38
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)579.25579.25579.25
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.470.720.89
LTM Dividend per Share2.172.172.17
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.470.720.89
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.642.893.06
WACC / Discount Rate6.28%6.28%6.28%
Growth Rate4.33%5.33%6.33%
Fair Value$141.04$318.58$650.31
Upside / Downside74.88%295.02%706.33%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,915.002,017.022,124.472,237.652,356.862,482.422,556.89
Payout Ratio65.69%70.55%75.42%80.28%85.14%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,258.001,423.081,602.171,796.312,006.592,234.182,365.12

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.28%6.28%6.28%
Growth Rate4.33%5.33%6.33%
Year 1 PV (M)1,326.231,338.941,351.65
Year 2 PV (M)1,391.521,418.331,445.39
Year 3 PV (M)1,453.961,496.171,539.19
Year 4 PV (M)1,513.631,572.501,633.08
Year 5 PV (M)1,570.611,647.341,727.04
PV of Terminal Value (M)50,633.1753,106.7955,676.15
Equity Value (M)57,889.1360,580.0763,372.50
Shares Outstanding (M)579.25579.25579.25
Fair Value$99.94$104.58$109.40
Upside / Downside23.92%29.68%35.65%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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