Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $91.25 - $317.88 | $150.59 |
| Multi-Stage | $85.93 - $94.03 | $89.91 |
| Blended Fair Value | $120.25 | |
| Current Price | $89.28 | |
| Upside | 34.68% | |
| Decision | Don't Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | 5.72% | 9.63% | 2.31 | 2.28 | 2.27 | 2.20 | 2.05 | 1.75 | 1.49 | 1.16 | 1.06 | 0.97 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | 1.08% | 0.61% | 3.08% | 7.44% | 17.27% | 17.49% | 27.95% | 10.06% | 9.24% | 5.02% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 3.29% | 3.18% | 3.02% | 2.60% | 3.11% | 2.92% | 2.36% | 2.10% | 2.41% | 2.21% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 2,161.00 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 1,573.00 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 588.00 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 432.20 | 270.13 | 162.08 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 588.00 | 588.00 | 588.00 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -432.20 | -270.13 | -162.08 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 155.80 | 317.88 | 425.93 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 650.15 | 650.15 | 650.15 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 0.24 | 0.49 | 0.66 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 2.42 | 2.42 | 2.42 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 0.24 | 0.49 | 0.66 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 2.66 | 2.91 | 3.07 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.74% | 6.74% | 6.74% |
| Growth Rate | 3.72% | 4.72% | 5.72% |
| Fair Value | $91.25 | $150.59 | $317.88 |
| Upside / Downside | 2.20% | 68.67% | 256.05% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 2,161.00 | 2,263.02 | 2,369.86 | 2,481.74 | 2,598.90 | 2,721.59 | 2,803.24 |
| Payout Ratio | 72.79% | 76.23% | 79.67% | 83.12% | 86.56% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 1,573.00 | 1,725.15 | 1,888.17 | 2,062.72 | 2,249.56 | 2,449.43 | 2,593.00 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.74% | 6.74% | 6.74% |
| Growth Rate | 3.72% | 4.72% | 5.72% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 1,600.73 | 1,616.17 | 1,631.60 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 1,625.63 | 1,657.13 | 1,688.93 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 1,647.84 | 1,695.96 | 1,745.01 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 1,667.49 | 1,732.73 | 1,799.87 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 1,684.70 | 1,767.49 | 1,853.51 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 47,640.68 | 49,981.97 | 52,414.42 |
| Equity Value (M) | 55,867.07 | 58,451.45 | 61,133.34 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 650.15 | 650.15 | 650.15 |
| Fair Value | $85.93 | $89.91 | $94.03 |
| Upside / Downside | -3.75% | 0.70% | 5.32% |
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|---|---|---|---|---|
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