Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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NRG Energy, Inc. (0K4C.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: General UtilitiesSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$212.70 - $842.66$362.03
Multi-Stage$133.34 - $145.75$139.43
Blended Fair Value$250.73
Current Price$161.95
Upside54.82%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS66.13%7.53%2.021.901.651.591.470.160.180.190.381.00
YoY Growth--6.30%14.76%4.08%8.14%821.88%-13.51%-2.63%-50.00%-62.19%2.55%
Dividend Yield--2.11%2.70%4.82%4.14%3.89%0.58%0.44%0.62%2.02%7.69%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,441.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)409.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,032.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)288.20180.13108.08
Cash Retained (M)1,032.001,032.001,032.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-288.20-180.13-108.08
(=) Excess Retained (M)743.80851.88923.93
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)200.88200.88200.88
(=) Excess Retained per Share3.704.244.60
LTM Dividend per Share2.042.042.04
(+) Excess Retained per Share3.704.244.60
(=) Adjusted Dividend5.746.286.64
WACC / Discount Rate8.35%8.35%8.35%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$212.70$362.03$842.66
Upside / Downside31.34%123.54%420.32%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,441.001,534.671,634.421,740.661,853.801,974.292,033.52
Payout Ratio28.38%40.71%53.03%65.35%77.68%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)409.00624.71866.731,137.571,439.971,776.871,881.01

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.35%8.35%8.35%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)571.17576.58582.00
Year 2 PV (M)724.53738.34752.27
Year 3 PV (M)869.45894.41919.84
Year 4 PV (M)1,006.251,044.941,084.75
Year 5 PV (M)1,135.261,190.091,247.02
PV of Terminal Value (M)22,478.1223,563.8224,691.07
Equity Value (M)26,784.7728,008.1829,276.94
Shares Outstanding (M)200.88200.88200.88
Fair Value$133.34$139.43$145.75
Upside / Downside-17.67%-13.90%-10.00%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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