Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Martin Marietta Materials, Inc. (0JZ0.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Construction MaterialsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$598.00 - $2,808.25$1,055.67
Multi-Stage$360.38 - $394.20$376.98
Blended Fair Value$716.32
Current Price$630.28
Upside13.65%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS7.80%7.55%3.102.862.632.432.302.131.911.791.721.76
YoY Growth--8.62%8.75%8.25%5.35%8.09%11.51%6.89%3.68%-2.26%17.70%
Dividend Yield--0.65%0.47%0.74%0.63%0.69%1.13%0.94%0.86%0.79%1.11%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,152.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)195.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)957.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)230.40144.0086.40
Cash Retained (M)957.00957.00957.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-230.40-144.00-86.40
(=) Excess Retained (M)726.60813.00870.60
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)60.9060.9060.90
(=) Excess Retained per Share11.9313.3514.30
LTM Dividend per Share3.203.203.20
(+) Excess Retained per Share11.9313.3514.30
(=) Adjusted Dividend15.1316.5517.50
WACC / Discount Rate8.17%8.17%8.17%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$598.00$1,055.67$2,808.25
Upside / Downside-5.12%67.49%345.56%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,152.001,226.881,306.631,391.561,482.011,578.341,625.69
Payout Ratio16.93%31.54%46.16%60.77%75.39%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)195.00386.98603.09845.661,117.221,420.511,503.76

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.17%8.17%8.17%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)354.39357.75361.11
Year 2 PV (M)505.80515.43525.16
Year 3 PV (M)649.51668.16687.16
Year 4 PV (M)785.82816.04847.13
Year 5 PV (M)915.01959.211,005.09
PV of Terminal Value (M)18,736.5219,641.5120,581.12
Equity Value (M)21,947.0622,958.1024,006.77
Shares Outstanding (M)60.9060.9060.90
Fair Value$360.38$376.98$394.20
Upside / Downside-42.82%-40.19%-37.46%

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