Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. (0J5I.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Travel LodgingSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$82.96 - $139.20$107.64
Multi-Stage$108.43 - $119.05$113.64
Blended Fair Value$110.64
Current Price$260.62
Upside-57.55%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-2.70%0.00%0.620.650.510.000.170.710.750.811.140.57
YoY Growth---5.06%28.46%0.00%-100.00%-75.58%-4.97%-7.18%-29.60%100.72%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.28%0.31%0.36%0.00%0.14%1.31%0.89%1.03%1.68%0.84%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,665.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)145.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,520.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)333.00208.13124.88
Cash Retained (M)1,520.001,520.001,520.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-333.00-208.13-124.88
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,187.001,311.881,395.13
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)242.00242.00242.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share4.905.425.76
LTM Dividend per Share0.600.600.60
(+) Excess Retained per Share4.905.425.76
(=) Adjusted Dividend5.506.026.36
WACC / Discount Rate8.13%8.13%8.13%
Growth Rate1.40%2.40%3.40%
Fair Value$82.96$107.64$139.20
Upside / Downside-68.17%-58.70%-46.59%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,665.001,705.031,746.011,787.991,830.971,874.981,931.23
Payout Ratio8.71%24.97%41.23%57.48%73.74%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)145.00425.69719.801,027.801,350.191,687.481,786.39

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.13%8.13%8.13%
Growth Rate1.40%2.40%3.40%
Year 1 PV (M)389.84393.68397.53
Year 2 PV (M)603.65615.61627.69
Year 3 PV (M)789.34812.93836.97
Year 4 PV (M)949.59987.611,026.76
Year 5 PV (M)1,086.851,141.511,198.34
PV of Terminal Value (M)22,421.5623,549.1424,721.63
Equity Value (M)26,240.8327,500.4828,808.93
Shares Outstanding (M)242.00242.00242.00
Fair Value$108.43$113.64$119.05
Upside / Downside-58.39%-56.40%-54.32%

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