Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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The Hartford Financial Services Group, Inc. (0J3H.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Insurance - Property & CasualtySector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$221.05 - $464.64$312.83
Multi-Stage$272.71 - $299.36$285.78
Blended Fair Value$299.31
Current Price$132.64
Upside125.65%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS4.14%7.02%1.921.821.821.751.651.571.311.181.151.09
YoY Growth--5.30%0.19%4.15%5.86%5.29%19.79%11.14%2.10%5.70%12.06%
Dividend Yield--1.56%1.78%2.62%2.38%2.50%4.87%2.65%2.28%2.55%2.42%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,558.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)588.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,970.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)711.60444.75266.85
Cash Retained (M)2,970.002,970.002,970.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-711.60-444.75-266.85
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,258.402,525.252,703.15
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)289.43289.43289.43
(=) Excess Retained per Share7.808.739.34
LTM Dividend per Share2.032.032.03
(+) Excess Retained per Share7.808.739.34
(=) Adjusted Dividend9.8310.7611.37
WACC / Discount Rate6.92%6.92%6.92%
Growth Rate2.36%3.36%4.36%
Fair Value$221.05$312.83$464.64
Upside / Downside66.66%135.85%250.30%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,558.003,677.593,801.193,928.954,061.014,197.504,323.43
Payout Ratio16.53%31.22%45.92%60.61%75.31%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)588.001,148.181,745.342,381.363,058.153,777.753,999.17

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.92%6.92%6.92%
Growth Rate2.36%3.36%4.36%
Year 1 PV (M)1,063.521,073.911,084.30
Year 2 PV (M)1,497.471,526.871,556.56
Year 3 PV (M)1,892.521,948.532,005.63
Year 4 PV (M)2,251.202,340.472,432.36
Year 5 PV (M)2,575.892,704.192,837.56
PV of Terminal Value (M)69,649.2173,118.4776,724.62
Equity Value (M)78,929.8182,712.4586,641.04
Shares Outstanding (M)289.43289.43289.43
Fair Value$272.71$285.78$299.36
Upside / Downside105.60%115.46%125.69%

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