Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $106.66 - $433.72 | $280.04 |
| Multi-Stage | $52.60 - $57.53 | $55.02 |
| Blended Fair Value | $167.53 | |
| Current Price | $23.65 | |
| Upside | 608.37% | |
| Decision | Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | 33.75% | 34.08% | 0.83 | 1.18 | 2.64 | 1.03 | 0.21 | 0.19 | 0.15 | 0.10 | 0.05 | 0.04 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | -29.78% | -55.32% | 155.38% | 390.57% | 8.90% | 31.10% | 41.26% | 117.86% | 9.36% | -0.56% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 2.87% | 4.21% | 10.76% | 3.83% | 1.12% | 1.13% | 0.57% | 0.44% | 0.20% | 0.19% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 1,646.00 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 669.00 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 977.00 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 329.20 | 205.75 | 123.45 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 977.00 | 977.00 | 977.00 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -329.20 | -205.75 | -123.45 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 647.80 | 771.25 | 853.55 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 754.75 | 754.75 | 754.75 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 0.86 | 1.02 | 1.13 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 0.89 | 0.89 | 0.89 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 0.86 | 1.02 | 1.13 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 1.74 | 1.91 | 2.02 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 7.23% | 7.23% | 7.23% |
| Growth Rate | 5.50% | 6.50% | 7.50% |
| Fair Value | $106.66 | $280.04 | $433.72 |
| Upside / Downside | 350.99% | 1,084.09% | 1,733.90% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 1,646.00 | 1,752.99 | 1,866.93 | 1,988.29 | 2,117.52 | 2,255.16 | 2,322.82 |
| Payout Ratio | 40.64% | 50.52% | 60.39% | 70.26% | 80.13% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 669.00 | 885.53 | 1,127.37 | 1,396.92 | 1,696.75 | 2,029.65 | 2,148.61 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 7.23% | 7.23% | 7.23% |
| Growth Rate | 5.50% | 6.50% | 7.50% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 818.10 | 825.85 | 833.61 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 962.22 | 980.55 | 999.05 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 1,101.50 | 1,133.12 | 1,165.34 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 1,236.04 | 1,283.57 | 1,332.47 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 1,365.97 | 1,431.94 | 1,500.44 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 34,219.67 | 35,872.50 | 37,588.58 |
| Equity Value (M) | 39,703.50 | 41,527.54 | 43,419.49 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 754.75 | 754.75 | 754.75 |
| Fair Value | $52.60 | $55.02 | $57.53 |
| Upside / Downside | 122.43% | 132.65% | 143.25% |
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