Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Sector

Alcoa Corporation (0HCB.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial MaterialsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$27.91 - $39.33$33.57
Multi-Stage$43.88 - $48.28$46.04
Blended Fair Value$39.81
Current Price$32.28
Upside23.31%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%-5.76%0.340.280.280.070.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--23.61%0.00%278.95%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%
Dividend Yield--1.18%0.79%0.65%0.08%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,146.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)104.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,042.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)229.20143.2585.95
Cash Retained (M)1,042.001,042.001,042.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-229.20-143.25-85.95
(=) Excess Retained (M)812.80898.75956.05
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)259.92259.92259.92
(=) Excess Retained per Share3.133.463.68
LTM Dividend per Share0.400.400.40
(+) Excess Retained per Share3.133.463.68
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.533.864.08
WACC / Discount Rate9.53%9.53%9.53%
Growth Rate-2.76%-1.76%-0.76%
Fair Value$27.91$33.57$39.33
Upside / Downside-13.54%4.00%21.85%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,146.001,125.861,106.071,086.621,067.521,048.761,080.22
Payout Ratio9.08%25.26%41.45%57.63%73.82%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)104.00284.39458.41626.22787.99943.88999.20

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.53%9.53%9.53%
Growth Rate-2.76%-1.76%-0.76%
Year 1 PV (M)257.00259.64262.28
Year 2 PV (M)374.35382.09389.91
Year 3 PV (M)462.14476.54491.24
Year 4 PV (M)525.51547.46570.09
Year 5 PV (M)568.84598.69629.79
PV of Terminal Value (M)9,218.449,702.2910,206.23
Equity Value (M)11,406.2811,966.7212,549.56
Shares Outstanding (M)259.92259.92259.92
Fair Value$43.88$46.04$48.28
Upside / Downside35.95%42.63%49.57%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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