Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Longfor Group Holdings Limited (0960.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Real Estate - DevelopmentSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$18.39 - $26.27$22.26
Multi-Stage$52.70 - $58.29$55.44
Blended Fair Value$38.85
Current Price$8.45
Upside359.76%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-27.68%-0.62%0.180.270.841.321.090.900.680.420.320.25
YoY Growth---33.83%-68.03%-36.43%20.75%21.84%31.29%63.88%31.48%25.93%33.34%
Dividend Yield--1.89%2.55%3.91%4.41%2.86%2.75%3.32%2.32%3.60%2.60%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)18,409.08
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,826.67
(=) Cash Retained (M)15,582.41
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)3,681.822,301.141,380.68
Cash Retained (M)15,582.4115,582.4115,582.41
(-) Cash Required (M)-3,681.82-2,301.14-1,380.68
(=) Excess Retained (M)11,900.5913,281.2714,201.73
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)6,574.616,574.616,574.61
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.812.022.16
LTM Dividend per Share0.430.430.43
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.812.022.16
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.242.452.59
WACC / Discount Rate6.20%6.20%6.20%
Growth Rate-5.33%-4.33%-3.33%
Fair Value$18.39$22.26$26.27
Upside / Downside117.67%163.44%210.94%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)18,409.0817,611.2616,848.0116,117.8415,419.3214,751.0715,193.60
Payout Ratio15.35%30.28%45.21%60.14%75.07%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,826.675,333.367,617.479,693.5811,575.4313,275.9614,054.08

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.20%6.20%6.20%
Growth Rate-5.33%-4.33%-3.33%
Year 1 PV (M)4,969.735,022.235,074.73
Year 2 PV (M)6,614.166,754.636,896.59
Year 3 PV (M)7,842.968,094.148,350.63
Year 4 PV (M)8,727.009,101.649,488.20
Year 5 PV (M)9,326.669,829.7810,354.39
PV of Terminal Value (M)309,015.44325,685.25343,066.82
Equity Value (M)346,495.96364,487.68383,231.36
Shares Outstanding (M)6,574.616,574.616,574.61
Fair Value$52.70$55.44$58.29
Upside / Downside523.69%556.08%589.82%

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