Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $3.49 - $4.98 | $4.22 |
| Multi-Stage | $9.19 - $10.15 | $9.66 |
| Blended Fair Value | $6.94 | |
| Current Price | $1.21 | |
| Upside | 473.73% | |
| Decision | Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | -3.04% | -5.44% | 0.05 | 0.06 | 0.07 | 0.10 | 0.08 | 0.06 | 0.06 | 0.07 | 0.09 | 0.00 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | -20.43% | -17.84% | -23.91% | 29.36% | 33.17% | -9.18% | -8.82% | -24.20% | 0.00% | -100.00% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 3.48% | 4.83% | 4.97% | 5.86% | 2.82% | 2.22% | 2.34% | 1.81% | 1.52% | 0.00% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 587.82 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 120.65 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 467.17 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 117.56 | 73.48 | 44.09 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 467.17 | 467.17 | 467.17 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -117.56 | -73.48 | -44.09 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 349.61 | 393.69 | 423.08 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 1,104.13 | 1,104.13 | 1,104.13 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 0.32 | 0.36 | 0.38 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 0.11 | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 0.32 | 0.36 | 0.38 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 0.43 | 0.47 | 0.49 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.54% | 6.54% | 6.54% |
| Growth Rate | -5.04% | -4.04% | -3.04% |
| Fair Value | $3.49 | $4.22 | $4.98 |
| Upside / Downside | 188.60% | 249.12% | 311.84% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 587.82 | 564.06 | 541.26 | 519.38 | 498.39 | 478.24 | 492.59 |
| Payout Ratio | 20.52% | 34.42% | 48.31% | 62.21% | 76.10% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 120.65 | 194.15 | 261.51 | 323.11 | 379.30 | 430.42 | 455.65 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.54% | 6.54% | 6.54% |
| Growth Rate | -5.04% | -4.04% | -3.04% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 180.33 | 182.23 | 184.13 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 225.61 | 230.39 | 235.22 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 258.92 | 267.18 | 275.62 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 282.32 | 294.40 | 306.86 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 297.57 | 313.57 | 330.25 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 8,899.37 | 9,377.93 | 9,876.87 |
| Equity Value (M) | 10,144.11 | 10,665.70 | 11,208.96 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 1,104.13 | 1,104.13 | 1,104.13 |
| Fair Value | $9.19 | $9.66 | $10.15 |
| Upside / Downside | 659.29% | 698.33% | 739.00% |
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|---|---|---|---|---|
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| 3217.TWO | Argosy Research Inc. | 3.97% | $6.40 | 54.14% |
| 5434.TW | Topco Scientific Co.,Ltd. | 3.97% | $11.76 | 59.09% |
| ALTXC.PA | TXCOM Group | 3.97% | $0.30 | 35.01% |
| MND.AX | Monadelphous Group Limited | 3.97% | $1.05 | 72.16% |
| MXI.AX | MaxiPARTS Limited | 3.97% | $0.09 | 46.30% |
| 027410.KS | BGF Co., Ltd. | 3.96% | $152.83 | 25.29% |
| CNT.BK | Christiani & Nielsen (Thai) Public Company Limited | 3.96% | $0.04 | 56.47% |
| UCID.JK | PT Uni-Charm Indonesia Tbk | 3.96% | $16.86 | 78.76% |
| 002758.SZ | ZJAMP Group Co., Ltd. | 3.95% | $0.40 | 46.30% |
| 4065.KL | PPB Group Berhad | 3.95% | $0.42 | 72.75% |
| 600585.SS | Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited | 3.95% | $0.86 | 51.83% |
| 8464.TW | Nien Made Enterprise Co., Ltd. | 3.95% | $14.49 | 64.65% |
| BRFS3.SA | BRF S.A. | 3.95% | $0.71 | 31.92% |
| F34.SI | Wilmar International Limited | 3.95% | $0.12 | 63.66% |
| 000848.SZ | Cheng De Lolo Company Limited | 3.94% | $0.33 | 55.15% |
| 6412.T | Heiwa Corporation | 3.94% | $80.00 | 63.34% |
| DSFIR.AS | DSM-Firmenich AG | 3.94% | $2.71 | 99.44% |
| NDT.MI | Neodecortech S.p.A. | 3.94% | $0.15 | 28.43% |
| TCSG.ME | TCS Group Holding PLC | 3.94% | $129.27 | 21.76% |
| 001720.KS | Shinyoung Securities Co., Ltd. | 3.93% | $5,219.58 | 32.99% |
| 0UKH.L | Bank of Montreal | 3.93% | $7.04 | 57.77% |
| 282330.KS | BGF retail Co. Ltd. | 3.93% | $4,100.00 | 37.49% |
| 4953.TWO | WITS Corp. | 3.93% | $4.91 | 84.65% |
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| 601789.SS | Ningbo Construction Co., Ltd. | 3.93% | $0.20 | 78.65% |
| EMA | Emera Incorporated | 3.93% | $1.93 | 49.45% |
| TSPC.JK | PT Tempo Scan Pacific Tbk | 3.93% | $111.90 | 33.61% |
| TTALO.HE | Terveystalo Oyj | 3.93% | $0.38 | 55.32% |
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