Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Sinopec Kantons Holdings Limited (0934.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas MidstreamSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$25.93 - $129.28$46.31
Multi-Stage$18.36 - $20.07$19.20
Blended Fair Value$32.76
Current Price$4.55
Upside619.90%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS6.79%18.71%0.250.220.200.200.200.180.120.080.060.05
YoY Growth--13.64%10.00%0.00%0.00%11.11%50.00%41.18%41.67%20.00%11.11%
Dividend Yield--5.10%6.61%6.78%6.54%7.41%5.49%3.46%1.68%1.69%1.08%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,013.50
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,168.50
(=) Cash Retained (M)845.01
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)402.70251.69151.01
Cash Retained (M)845.01845.01845.01
(-) Cash Required (M)-402.70-251.69-151.01
(=) Excess Retained (M)442.31593.32693.99
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,486.162,486.162,486.16
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.180.240.28
LTM Dividend per Share0.470.470.47
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.180.240.28
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.650.710.75
WACC / Discount Rate7.41%7.41%7.41%
Growth Rate4.79%5.79%6.79%
Fair Value$25.93$46.31$129.28
Upside / Downside469.80%917.83%2,741.41%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,013.502,130.102,253.452,383.942,521.982,668.022,748.06
Payout Ratio58.03%64.43%70.82%77.21%83.61%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,168.501,372.341,595.891,840.712,108.542,401.222,541.96

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.41%7.41%7.41%
Growth Rate4.79%5.79%6.79%
Year 1 PV (M)1,265.601,277.681,289.75
Year 2 PV (M)1,357.271,383.301,409.57
Year 3 PV (M)1,443.721,485.451,527.97
Year 4 PV (M)1,525.151,584.211,644.96
Year 5 PV (M)1,601.751,679.651,760.55
PV of Terminal Value (M)38,453.9440,324.0942,266.31
Equity Value (M)45,647.4447,734.3749,899.12
Shares Outstanding (M)2,486.162,486.162,486.16
Fair Value$18.36$19.20$20.07
Upside / Downside303.53%321.98%341.12%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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