Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $192.13 - $369.37 | $346.16 |
| Multi-Stage | $57.58 - $63.03 | $60.26 |
| Blended Fair Value | $203.21 | |
| Current Price | $6.88 | |
| Upside | 2,853.58% | |
| Decision | Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | -0.86% | 8.27% | 0.47 | 0.22 | 0.86 | 1.22 | 0.44 | 0.49 | 0.50 | 0.40 | 0.31 | 0.14 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | 113.80% | -74.44% | -29.48% | 173.78% | -9.20% | -1.87% | 23.42% | 30.29% | 117.25% | -32.62% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 5.94% | 2.50% | 5.90% | 6.24% | 2.05% | 4.74% | 5.76% | 3.73% | 4.89% | 3.13% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 7,912.36 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 2,929.80 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 4,982.56 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 1,582.47 | 989.04 | 593.43 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 4,982.56 | 4,982.56 | 4,982.56 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -1,582.47 | -989.04 | -593.43 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 3,400.09 | 3,993.51 | 4,389.13 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 4,260.12 | 4,260.12 | 4,260.12 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 0.80 | 0.94 | 1.03 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 0.69 | 0.69 | 0.69 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 0.80 | 0.94 | 1.03 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 1.49 | 1.63 | 1.72 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.32% | 6.32% | 6.32% |
| Growth Rate | 5.50% | 6.50% | 7.50% |
| Fair Value | $192.13 | $346.16 | $369.37 |
| Upside / Downside | 2,692.54% | 4,931.34% | 5,268.79% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 7,912.36 | 8,426.66 | 8,974.39 | 9,557.73 | 10,178.98 | 10,840.61 | 11,165.83 |
| Payout Ratio | 37.03% | 47.62% | 58.22% | 68.81% | 79.41% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 2,929.80 | 4,012.99 | 5,224.61 | 6,576.79 | 8,082.68 | 9,756.55 | 10,328.39 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.32% | 6.32% | 6.32% |
| Growth Rate | 5.50% | 6.50% | 7.50% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 3,739.15 | 3,774.59 | 3,810.03 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 4,535.90 | 4,622.29 | 4,709.50 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 5,320.20 | 5,472.92 | 5,628.54 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 6,092.20 | 6,326.49 | 6,567.47 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 6,852.03 | 7,182.99 | 7,526.61 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 218,752.94 | 229,318.79 | 240,289.02 |
| Equity Value (M) | 245,292.41 | 256,698.07 | 268,531.17 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 4,260.12 | 4,260.12 | 4,260.12 |
| Fair Value | $57.58 | $60.26 | $63.03 |
| Upside / Downside | 736.90% | 775.82% | 816.19% |
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|---|---|---|---|---|
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| 3217.TWO | Argosy Research Inc. | 3.97% | $6.40 | 54.14% |
| 5434.TW | Topco Scientific Co.,Ltd. | 3.97% | $11.76 | 59.09% |
| ALTXC.PA | TXCOM Group | 3.97% | $0.30 | 35.01% |
| MND.AX | Monadelphous Group Limited | 3.97% | $1.05 | 72.16% |
| MXI.AX | MaxiPARTS Limited | 3.97% | $0.09 | 46.30% |
| 027410.KS | BGF Co., Ltd. | 3.96% | $152.83 | 25.29% |
| CNT.BK | Christiani & Nielsen (Thai) Public Company Limited | 3.96% | $0.04 | 56.47% |
| UCID.JK | PT Uni-Charm Indonesia Tbk | 3.96% | $16.86 | 78.76% |
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| 4065.KL | PPB Group Berhad | 3.95% | $0.42 | 72.75% |
| 600585.SS | Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited | 3.95% | $0.86 | 51.83% |
| 8464.TW | Nien Made Enterprise Co., Ltd. | 3.95% | $14.49 | 64.65% |
| BRFS3.SA | BRF S.A. | 3.95% | $0.71 | 31.92% |
| F34.SI | Wilmar International Limited | 3.95% | $0.12 | 63.66% |
| 000848.SZ | Cheng De Lolo Company Limited | 3.94% | $0.33 | 55.15% |
| 6412.T | Heiwa Corporation | 3.94% | $80.00 | 63.34% |
| DSFIR.AS | DSM-Firmenich AG | 3.94% | $2.71 | 99.44% |
| NDT.MI | Neodecortech S.p.A. | 3.94% | $0.15 | 28.43% |
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| 4953.TWO | WITS Corp. | 3.93% | $4.91 | 84.65% |
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| 601789.SS | Ningbo Construction Co., Ltd. | 3.93% | $0.20 | 78.65% |
| EMA | Emera Incorporated | 3.93% | $1.93 | 49.45% |
| TSPC.JK | PT Tempo Scan Pacific Tbk | 3.93% | $111.90 | 33.61% |
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