Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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China East Education Holdings Limited (0667.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Education & Training ServicesSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4.08 - $6.27$5.10
Multi-Stage$9.31 - $10.23$9.76
Blended Fair Value$7.43
Current Price$6.09
Upside22.04%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS63.30%0.00%0.180.180.210.220.190.020.400.050.000.02
YoY Growth--0.30%-12.76%-7.05%15.36%1,137.51%-96.10%773.74%0.00%-100.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--7.04%7.62%3.75%5.58%1.23%0.11%4.57%0.55%0.00%0.27%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)984.33
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)839.40
(=) Cash Retained (M)144.93
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)196.87123.0473.82
Cash Retained (M)144.93144.93144.93
(-) Cash Required (M)-196.87-123.04-73.82
(=) Excess Retained (M)-51.9421.8971.11
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,196.752,196.752,196.75
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.020.010.03
LTM Dividend per Share0.380.380.38
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.020.010.03
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.360.390.41
WACC / Discount Rate6.61%6.61%6.61%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$4.08$5.10$6.27
Upside / Downside-32.98%-16.21%3.01%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)984.33974.49964.74955.10945.55936.09964.17
Payout Ratio85.28%86.22%87.17%88.11%89.06%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)839.40840.21840.93841.54842.06842.48891.86

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.61%6.61%6.61%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)780.18788.14796.10
Year 2 PV (M)725.05739.92754.95
Year 3 PV (M)673.74694.57715.84
Year 4 PV (M)625.99651.93678.67
Year 5 PV (M)581.55611.83643.37
PV of Terminal Value (M)17,068.3517,957.1418,882.58
Equity Value (M)20,454.8621,443.5522,471.50
Shares Outstanding (M)2,196.752,196.752,196.75
Fair Value$9.31$9.76$10.23
Upside / Downside52.90%60.29%67.97%

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