Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Orient Overseas (International) Limited (0316.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Marine ShippingSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$113.04 - $250.88$163.06
Multi-Stage$84.48 - $92.11$88.23
Blended Fair Value$125.65
Current Price$16.99
Upside639.54%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS41.61%24.16%0.775.429.305.581.820.140.000.020.020.12
YoY Growth---85.70%-41.72%66.79%207.12%1,234.19%0.00%-100.00%15.37%-85.78%38.78%
Dividend Yield--5.22%38.39%51.52%22.73%18.17%2.81%0.00%0.21%0.42%2.57%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,770.79
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,839.14
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,931.65
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)754.16471.35282.81
Cash Retained (M)1,931.651,931.651,931.65
(-) Cash Required (M)-754.16-471.35-282.81
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,177.501,460.301,648.84
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)660.37660.37660.37
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.782.212.50
LTM Dividend per Share2.792.792.79
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.782.212.50
(=) Adjusted Dividend4.575.005.28
WACC / Discount Rate9.76%9.76%9.76%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$113.04$163.06$250.88
Upside / Downside565.36%859.77%1,376.66%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,770.794,015.904,276.934,554.934,851.005,166.315,321.30
Payout Ratio48.77%57.02%65.26%73.51%81.75%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,839.142,289.812,791.293,348.303,965.924,649.684,922.21

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.76%9.76%9.76%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)2,066.552,086.142,105.72
Year 2 PV (M)2,273.512,316.822,360.53
Year 3 PV (M)2,461.292,531.942,603.94
Year 4 PV (M)2,631.042,732.232,836.30
Year 5 PV (M)2,783.902,918.373,057.98
PV of Terminal Value (M)43,575.1545,679.8447,865.09
Equity Value (M)55,791.4458,265.3360,829.56
Shares Outstanding (M)660.37660.37660.37
Fair Value$84.48$88.23$92.11
Upside / Downside397.26%419.31%442.17%

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