Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $12.60 - $21.88 | $16.58 |
| Multi-Stage | $24.68 - $27.07 | $25.85 |
| Blended Fair Value | $21.22 | |
| Current Price | $6.56 | |
| Upside | 223.43% | |
| Decision | Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | -7.91% | 4.71% | 0.36 | 0.61 | 0.61 | 0.59 | 0.58 | 0.55 | 0.50 | 0.44 | 0.34 | 0.29 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | -40.81% | 0.13% | 2.99% | 2.29% | 6.09% | 9.60% | 12.36% | 29.00% | 20.19% | 25.30% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 5.41% | 10.56% | 7.67% | 6.00% | 4.16% | 3.36% | 3.30% | 4.26% | 3.37% | 2.61% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 6,419.03 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 6,382.88 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 36.16 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 1,283.81 | 802.38 | 481.43 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 36.16 | 36.16 | 36.16 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -1,283.81 | -802.38 | -481.43 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | -1,247.65 | -766.22 | -445.27 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 6,537.82 | 6,537.82 | 6,537.82 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | -0.19 | -0.12 | -0.07 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 0.98 | 0.98 | 0.98 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | -0.19 | -0.12 | -0.07 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 0.79 | 0.86 | 0.91 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.32% | 6.32% | 6.32% |
| Growth Rate | 0.08% | 1.08% | 2.08% |
| Fair Value | $12.60 | $16.58 | $21.88 |
| Upside / Downside | 92.15% | 152.79% | 233.58% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 6,419.03 | 6,488.67 | 6,559.07 | 6,630.23 | 6,702.17 | 6,774.88 | 6,978.13 |
| Payout Ratio | 99.44% | 97.55% | 95.66% | 93.77% | 91.89% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 6,382.88 | 6,329.66 | 6,274.54 | 6,217.48 | 6,158.44 | 6,097.39 | 6,454.77 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.32% | 6.32% | 6.32% |
| Growth Rate | 0.08% | 1.08% | 2.08% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 5,894.42 | 5,953.31 | 6,012.21 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 5,441.30 | 5,550.58 | 5,660.94 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 5,021.06 | 5,173.08 | 5,328.13 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 4,631.41 | 4,819.30 | 5,012.85 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 4,270.18 | 4,487.82 | 4,714.23 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 136,090.05 | 143,026.00 | 150,241.91 |
| Equity Value (M) | 161,348.42 | 169,010.08 | 176,970.27 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 6,537.82 | 6,537.82 | 6,537.82 |
| Fair Value | $24.68 | $25.85 | $27.07 |
| Upside / Downside | 276.21% | 294.07% | 312.63% |
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