Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $8.84 - $12.95 | $10.82 |
| Multi-Stage | $21.34 - $23.53 | $22.41 |
| Blended Fair Value | $16.62 | |
| Current Price | $3.82 | |
| Upside | 334.99% | |
| Decision | Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | -2.52% | 11.66% | 0.22 | 0.23 | 0.30 | 0.35 | 0.27 | 0.25 | 0.18 | 0.18 | 0.14 | 0.09 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | -4.35% | -23.33% | -14.29% | 29.63% | 8.00% | 42.75% | -4.00% | 28.19% | 55.99% | 25.00% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 5.68% | 9.13% | 8.60% | 5.59% | 6.16% | 4.00% | 2.49% | 1.68% | 1.66% | 0.94% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 7,228.19 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 2,582.48 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 4,645.71 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 1,445.64 | 903.52 | 542.11 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 4,645.71 | 4,645.71 | 4,645.71 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -1,445.64 | -903.52 | -542.11 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 3,200.07 | 3,742.19 | 4,103.60 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 6,142.98 | 6,142.98 | 6,142.98 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 0.52 | 0.61 | 0.67 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 0.42 | 0.42 | 0.42 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 0.52 | 0.61 | 0.67 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 0.94 | 1.03 | 1.09 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.66% | 6.66% | 6.66% |
| Growth Rate | -3.60% | -2.60% | -1.60% |
| Fair Value | $8.84 | $10.82 | $12.95 |
| Upside / Downside | 131.34% | 183.23% | 239.07% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 7,228.19 | 7,039.99 | 6,856.70 | 6,678.18 | 6,504.30 | 6,334.96 | 6,525.01 |
| Payout Ratio | 35.73% | 46.58% | 57.44% | 68.29% | 79.15% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 2,582.48 | 3,279.39 | 3,938.26 | 4,560.60 | 5,147.87 | 5,701.46 | 6,035.63 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.66% | 6.66% | 6.66% |
| Growth Rate | -3.60% | -2.60% | -1.60% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 3,042.92 | 3,074.49 | 3,106.05 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 3,390.78 | 3,461.50 | 3,532.94 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 3,643.47 | 3,758.04 | 3,874.98 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 3,816.08 | 3,976.91 | 4,142.77 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 3,921.69 | 4,129.37 | 4,345.76 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 113,286.86 | 119,286.14 | 125,536.93 |
| Equity Value (M) | 131,101.80 | 137,686.44 | 144,539.44 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 6,142.98 | 6,142.98 | 6,142.98 |
| Fair Value | $21.34 | $22.41 | $23.53 |
| Upside / Downside | 458.68% | 486.74% | 515.95% |
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