Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Want Want China Holdings Limited (0151.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3.48 - $5.42$4.38
Multi-Stage$8.19 - $9.01$8.59
Blended Fair Value$6.48
Current Price$4.57
Upside41.89%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820162015
DPS-2.25%-0.30%0.230.150.430.150.300.260.190.120.130.13
YoY Growth--54.48%-64.73%188.40%-49.85%13.25%35.00%59.15%-6.14%3.90%-48.10%
Dividend Yield--5.13%3.51%8.94%2.56%6.51%4.93%3.43%2.08%2.73%2.62%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)4,335.57
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,766.88
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,568.69
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)867.11541.95325.17
Cash Retained (M)1,568.691,568.691,568.69
(-) Cash Required (M)-867.11-541.95-325.17
(=) Excess Retained (M)701.581,026.741,243.52
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)11,809.7711,809.7711,809.77
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.060.090.11
LTM Dividend per Share0.230.230.23
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.060.090.11
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.290.320.34
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate-1.96%-0.96%0.04%
Fair Value$3.48$4.38$5.42
Upside / Downside-23.80%-4.23%18.58%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)4,335.574,293.994,252.804,212.024,171.624,131.624,255.56
Payout Ratio63.82%69.05%74.29%79.53%84.76%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,766.882,965.193,159.453,349.703,536.023,718.453,936.40

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate-1.96%-0.96%0.04%
Year 1 PV (M)2,761.032,789.202,817.36
Year 2 PV (M)2,739.362,795.532,852.27
Year 3 PV (M)2,704.362,787.962,873.26
Year 4 PV (M)2,658.232,768.352,881.86
Year 5 PV (M)2,602.912,738.392,879.46
PV of Terminal Value (M)83,251.0487,584.2792,096.08
Equity Value (M)96,716.93101,463.69106,400.29
Shares Outstanding (M)11,809.7711,809.7711,809.77
Fair Value$8.19$8.59$9.01
Upside / Downside79.20%88.00%97.14%

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