Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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China Merchants Port Holdings Company Limited (0144.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Marine ShippingSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$109.54 - $542.69$195.44
Multi-Stage$93.43 - $102.42$97.84
Blended Fair Value$146.64
Current Price$14.30
Upside925.45%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS13.34%5.66%0.730.300.220.290.180.390.430.850.530.53
YoY Growth--145.59%32.62%-21.19%60.92%-54.73%-9.05%-49.25%60.10%-0.54%26.13%
Dividend Yield--5.29%2.80%1.97%2.01%1.87%2.97%3.05%4.09%2.75%2.16%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)14,476.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)4,313.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)10,163.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2,895.201,809.501,085.70
Cash Retained (M)10,163.0010,163.0010,163.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-2,895.20-1,809.50-1,085.70
(=) Excess Retained (M)7,267.808,353.509,077.30
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)4,184.994,184.994,184.99
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.742.002.17
LTM Dividend per Share1.031.031.03
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.742.002.17
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.773.033.20
WACC / Discount Rate6.51%6.51%6.51%
Growth Rate3.88%4.88%5.88%
Fair Value$109.54$195.44$542.69
Upside / Downside666.03%1,266.70%3,695.02%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)14,476.0015,182.8715,924.2616,701.8617,517.4218,372.8118,923.99
Payout Ratio29.79%41.84%53.88%65.92%77.96%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)4,313.006,351.808,579.4311,009.4713,656.3816,535.5317,504.69

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.51%6.51%6.51%
Growth Rate3.88%4.88%5.88%
Year 1 PV (M)5,906.865,963.726,020.58
Year 2 PV (M)7,419.567,563.097,708.00
Year 3 PV (M)8,854.139,112.309,375.43
Year 4 PV (M)10,213.5110,612.4911,023.05
Year 5 PV (M)11,500.5112,064.8112,651.03
PV of Terminal Value (M)347,116.92364,148.78381,842.74
Equity Value (M)391,011.50409,465.20428,620.84
Shares Outstanding (M)4,184.994,184.994,184.99
Fair Value$93.43$97.84$102.42
Upside / Downside553.37%584.21%616.21%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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