Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Hanexpress.Co., Ltd (014130.KS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Integrated Freight & LogisticsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$20,052.07 - $44,873.89$29,010.60
Multi-Stage$25,723.22 - $28,243.29$26,959.35
Blended Fair Value$27,984.98
Current Price$3,535.00
Upside691.65%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-3.97%0.00%49.78129.860.000.0071.1160.9581.2771.1171.1150.79
YoY Growth---61.67%0.00%0.00%-100.00%16.67%-25.00%14.29%0.00%40.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.50%2.71%0.00%0.00%1.15%1.55%1.73%1.08%1.22%0.38%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)12,233.02
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,521.35
(=) Cash Retained (M)9,711.67
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2,446.601,529.13917.48
Cash Retained (M)9,711.679,711.679,711.67
(-) Cash Required (M)-2,446.60-1,529.13-917.48
(=) Excess Retained (M)7,265.078,182.548,794.19
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)11.8111.8111.81
(=) Excess Retained per Share615.04692.71744.49
LTM Dividend per Share213.45213.45213.45
(+) Excess Retained per Share615.04692.71744.49
(=) Adjusted Dividend828.49906.16957.94
WACC / Discount Rate6.52%6.52%6.52%
Growth Rate2.29%3.29%4.29%
Fair Value$20,052.07$29,010.60$44,873.89
Upside / Downside467.24%720.67%1,169.42%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)12,233.0212,635.5313,051.2813,480.7013,924.2614,382.4114,813.89
Payout Ratio20.61%34.49%48.37%62.24%76.12%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,521.354,357.846,312.468,390.9810,599.4612,944.1713,702.85

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.52%6.52%6.52%
Growth Rate2.29%3.29%4.29%
Year 1 PV (M)4,051.624,091.234,130.84
Year 2 PV (M)5,456.495,563.705,671.95
Year 3 PV (M)6,743.506,943.217,146.83
Year 4 PV (M)7,919.788,234.058,557.58
Year 5 PV (M)8,992.109,440.329,906.23
PV of Terminal Value (M)270,687.41284,179.98298,205.30
Equity Value (M)303,850.90318,452.49333,618.74
Shares Outstanding (M)11.8111.8111.81
Fair Value$25,723.22$26,959.35$28,243.29
Upside / Downside627.67%662.64%698.96%

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