Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $82.85 - $182.67 | $119.25 |
| Multi-Stage | $115.87 - $126.98 | $121.32 |
| Blended Fair Value | $120.29 | |
| Current Price | $28.20 | |
| Upside | 326.54% | |
| Decision | Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | 3.63% | 4.86% | 1.28 | 1.22 | 1.38 | 1.15 | 1.09 | 1.07 | 0.21 | 2.47 | 2.98 | 0.92 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | 4.62% | -11.29% | 19.50% | 5.24% | 2.39% | 419.05% | -91.66% | -17.02% | 221.99% | 16.26% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 4.72% | 4.09% | 3.33% | 2.75% | 2.53% | 2.32% | 0.50% | 5.39% | 7.90% | 2.41% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 27,111.00 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 21,082.00 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 6,029.00 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 5,422.20 | 3,388.88 | 2,033.33 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 6,029.00 | 6,029.00 | 6,029.00 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -5,422.20 | -3,388.88 | -2,033.33 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 606.80 | 2,640.13 | 3,995.68 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 6,218.00 | 6,218.00 | 6,218.00 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 0.10 | 0.42 | 0.64 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 3.39 | 3.39 | 3.39 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 0.10 | 0.42 | 0.64 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 3.49 | 3.82 | 4.03 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.40% | 6.40% | 6.40% |
| Growth Rate | 2.10% | 3.10% | 4.10% |
| Fair Value | $82.85 | $119.25 | $182.67 |
| Upside / Downside | 193.81% | 322.88% | 547.78% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 27,111.00 | 27,951.27 | 28,817.58 | 29,710.73 | 30,631.58 | 31,580.96 | 32,528.39 |
| Payout Ratio | 77.76% | 80.21% | 82.66% | 85.10% | 87.55% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 21,082.00 | 22,419.55 | 23,819.77 | 25,285.24 | 26,818.67 | 28,422.86 | 30,088.76 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.40% | 6.40% | 6.40% |
| Growth Rate | 2.10% | 3.10% | 4.10% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 20,867.09 | 21,071.47 | 21,275.85 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 20,635.14 | 21,041.34 | 21,451.49 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 20,387.87 | 20,992.82 | 21,609.62 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 20,126.91 | 20,927.09 | 21,750.90 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 19,853.75 | 20,845.26 | 21,876.00 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 618,584.34 | 649,476.85 | 681,591.43 |
| Equity Value (M) | 720,455.11 | 754,354.83 | 789,555.29 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 6,218.00 | 6,218.00 | 6,218.00 |
| Fair Value | $115.87 | $121.32 | $126.98 |
| Upside / Downside | 310.87% | 330.21% | 350.28% |
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