Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Foran Energy Group Co.,Ltd. (002911.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Regulated GasSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$62.92 - $122.33$114.64
Multi-Stage$19.67 - $21.49$20.56
Blended Fair Value$67.60
Current Price$13.45
Upside402.63%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS23.31%12.87%0.570.470.450.370.230.200.150.250.180.17
YoY Growth--22.08%4.38%19.48%59.11%17.70%30.27%-38.34%41.09%1.60%2.25%
Dividend Yield--5.03%4.44%4.46%5.05%2.68%3.33%1.89%2.11%1.94%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)881.16
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)800.50
(=) Cash Retained (M)80.66
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)176.23110.1466.09
Cash Retained (M)80.6680.6680.66
(-) Cash Required (M)-176.23-110.14-66.09
(=) Excess Retained (M)-95.58-29.4914.57
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,432.481,432.481,432.48
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.07-0.020.01
LTM Dividend per Share0.560.560.56
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.07-0.020.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.490.540.57
WACC / Discount Rate6.33%6.33%6.33%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$62.92$114.64$122.33
Upside / Downside367.84%752.37%809.54%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)881.16938.43999.431,064.391,133.581,207.261,243.48
Payout Ratio90.85%90.68%90.51%90.34%90.17%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)800.50850.95904.56961.561,022.141,086.541,150.22

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.33%6.33%6.33%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)792.81800.32807.84
Year 2 PV (M)785.19800.14815.24
Year 3 PV (M)777.64799.96822.71
Year 4 PV (M)770.16799.78830.24
Year 5 PV (M)762.75799.59837.84
PV of Terminal Value (M)24,283.8325,456.7526,674.56
Equity Value (M)28,172.3729,456.5430,788.42
Shares Outstanding (M)1,432.481,432.481,432.48
Fair Value$19.67$20.56$21.49
Upside / Downside46.22%52.89%59.80%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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