Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Guangdong Lingxiao Pump Industry Co.,Ltd. (002884.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$104.55 - $256.10$240.00
Multi-Stage$38.31 - $41.87$40.05
Blended Fair Value$140.03
Current Price$17.11
Upside718.39%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS14.64%25.73%0.990.990.990.920.700.500.170.200.400.20
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%8.32%30.79%39.75%190.69%-14.40%-50.02%100.17%100.32%
Dividend Yield--5.52%5.04%6.19%4.18%3.35%4.96%1.42%1.56%3.91%1.95%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)463.76
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)357.68
(=) Cash Retained (M)106.08
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)92.7557.9734.78
Cash Retained (M)106.08106.08106.08
(-) Cash Required (M)-92.75-57.97-34.78
(=) Excess Retained (M)13.3348.1171.30
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)360.14360.14360.14
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.040.130.20
LTM Dividend per Share0.990.990.99
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.040.130.20
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.031.131.19
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$104.55$240.00$256.10
Upside / Downside511.02%1,302.68%1,396.76%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)463.76493.90526.01560.20596.61635.39654.45
Payout Ratio77.13%79.70%82.28%84.85%87.43%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)357.68393.65432.78475.33521.59571.85605.37

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)366.02369.49372.95
Year 2 PV (M)374.15381.28388.47
Year 3 PV (M)382.10393.07404.24
Year 4 PV (M)389.85404.84420.26
Year 5 PV (M)397.41416.61436.54
PV of Terminal Value (M)11,885.7912,459.8813,055.93
Equity Value (M)13,795.3214,425.1615,078.41
Shares Outstanding (M)360.14360.14360.14
Fair Value$38.31$40.05$41.87
Upside / Downside123.88%134.10%144.70%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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