Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Xiamen Jihong Technology Co., Ltd. (002803.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaging & ContainersSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$32.12 - $131.59$83.49
Multi-Stage$16.03 - $17.52$16.76
Blended Fair Value$50.13
Current Price$18.58
Upside169.78%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS11.14%28.87%0.520.460.030.130.120.310.100.050.020.04
YoY Growth--14.20%1,304.95%-75.27%11.82%-61.77%201.66%87.65%213.30%-58.43%1.04%
Dividend Yield--4.14%2.61%0.15%0.89%0.39%1.91%0.69%0.37%0.11%1.32%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)262.88
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)130.79
(=) Cash Retained (M)132.09
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)52.5832.8619.72
Cash Retained (M)132.09132.09132.09
(-) Cash Required (M)-52.58-32.86-19.72
(=) Excess Retained (M)79.5199.23112.37
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)397.31397.31397.31
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.200.250.28
LTM Dividend per Share0.330.330.33
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.200.250.28
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.530.580.61
WACC / Discount Rate7.24%7.24%7.24%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$32.12$83.49$131.59
Upside / Downside72.88%349.36%608.21%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)262.88279.97298.17317.55338.19360.17370.98
Payout Ratio49.75%57.80%65.85%73.90%81.95%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)130.79161.83196.35234.67277.15324.15343.15

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.24%7.24%7.24%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)149.49150.91152.32
Year 2 PV (M)167.55170.74173.96
Year 3 PV (M)184.98190.29195.70
Year 4 PV (M)201.80209.56217.54
Year 5 PV (M)218.03228.56239.49
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,445.485,708.505,981.58
Equity Value (M)6,367.326,658.556,960.60
Shares Outstanding (M)397.31397.31397.31
Fair Value$16.03$16.76$17.52
Upside / Downside-13.75%-9.80%-5.71%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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