Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sichuan Jiuyuan Yinhai Software.Co.,Ltd (002777.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Software - ApplicationSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.13 - $3.20$2.64
Multi-Stage$2.94 - $3.21$3.07
Blended Fair Value$2.85
Current Price$18.99
Upside-84.98%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS2.58%1.83%0.130.100.160.120.110.110.110.100.100.15
YoY Growth--20.00%-35.00%33.33%5.00%4.00%0.00%7.84%0.00%-33.33%46.78%
Dividend Yield--0.70%0.46%0.57%0.81%0.79%0.52%0.66%0.63%0.62%0.67%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)97.24
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)62.48
(=) Cash Retained (M)34.75
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)19.4512.157.29
Cash Retained (M)34.7534.7534.75
(-) Cash Required (M)-19.45-12.15-7.29
(=) Excess Retained (M)15.3022.6027.46
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)390.39390.39390.39
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.040.060.07
LTM Dividend per Share0.160.160.16
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.040.060.07
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.200.220.23
WACC / Discount Rate9.97%9.97%9.97%
Growth Rate0.58%1.58%2.58%
Fair Value$2.13$2.64$3.20
Upside / Downside-88.76%-86.11%-83.17%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)97.2498.77100.33101.91103.52105.15108.31
Payout Ratio64.26%69.41%74.56%79.70%84.85%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)62.4868.5574.8081.2387.8494.64100.18

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.97%9.97%9.97%
Growth Rate0.58%1.58%2.58%
Year 1 PV (M)61.7362.3462.95
Year 2 PV (M)60.6461.8563.08
Year 3 PV (M)59.2961.0862.90
Year 4 PV (M)57.7360.0662.46
Year 5 PV (M)56.0058.8461.79
PV of Terminal Value (M)850.49893.62938.48
Equity Value (M)1,145.881,197.791,251.66
Shares Outstanding (M)390.39390.39390.39
Fair Value$2.94$3.07$3.21
Upside / Downside-84.54%-83.84%-83.12%

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