Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

Tianshui Zhongxing Bio-technology Co.,Ltd. (002772.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Agricultural Farm ProductsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$23.44 - $127.66$45.63
Multi-Stage$13.86 - $15.13$14.48
Blended Fair Value$30.06
Current Price$10.37
Upside189.83%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS20.66%22.94%0.530.560.450.390.270.210.130.140.080.09
YoY Growth---5.33%23.76%14.57%43.26%32.97%56.75%-8.94%74.09%-11.70%40.62%
Dividend Yield--7.32%7.10%5.24%4.94%3.04%2.49%1.59%1.36%0.47%0.38%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)243.73
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)168.42
(=) Cash Retained (M)75.31
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)48.7530.4718.28
Cash Retained (M)75.3175.3175.31
(-) Cash Required (M)-48.75-30.47-18.28
(=) Excess Retained (M)26.5644.8457.03
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)379.69379.69379.69
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.070.120.15
LTM Dividend per Share0.440.440.44
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.070.120.15
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.510.560.59
WACC / Discount Rate7.81%7.81%7.81%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$23.44$45.63$127.66
Upside / Downside126.07%340.02%1,131.05%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)243.73259.57276.44294.41313.55333.93343.95
Payout Ratio69.10%73.28%77.46%81.64%85.82%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)168.42190.22214.13240.36269.09300.53318.15

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.81%7.81%7.81%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)174.78176.44178.09
Year 2 PV (M)180.79184.23187.71
Year 3 PV (M)186.46191.81197.26
Year 4 PV (M)191.80199.18206.77
Year 5 PV (M)196.83206.34216.21
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,331.154,540.354,757.55
Equity Value (M)5,261.815,498.345,743.59
Shares Outstanding (M)379.69379.69379.69
Fair Value$13.86$14.48$15.13
Upside / Downside33.64%39.64%45.87%

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