Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sichuan Guoguang Agrochemical Co., Ltd. (002749.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ChemicalsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$80.46 - $162.00$151.82
Multi-Stage$25.57 - $27.95$26.74
Blended Fair Value$89.28
Current Price$14.99
Upside495.59%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS49.59%22.41%0.820.200.210.210.200.110.330.490.160.13
YoY Growth--317.30%-7.77%0.75%4.03%85.67%-66.37%-33.33%200.00%25.00%20.00%
Dividend Yield--5.40%1.30%2.38%2.29%1.83%1.12%2.64%4.07%0.99%0.89%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)375.29
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)282.83
(=) Cash Retained (M)92.46
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)75.0646.9128.15
Cash Retained (M)92.4692.4692.46
(-) Cash Required (M)-75.06-46.91-28.15
(=) Excess Retained (M)17.4045.5564.32
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)460.70460.70460.70
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.040.100.14
LTM Dividend per Share0.610.610.61
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.040.100.14
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.650.710.75
WACC / Discount Rate6.35%6.35%6.35%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$80.46$151.82$162.00
Upside / Downside436.79%912.81%980.74%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)375.29399.68425.66453.33482.80514.18529.60
Payout Ratio75.36%78.29%81.22%84.14%87.07%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)282.83312.91345.71381.45420.38462.76489.88

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.35%6.35%6.35%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)291.45294.22296.98
Year 2 PV (M)299.92305.63311.40
Year 3 PV (M)308.24317.08326.10
Year 4 PV (M)316.40328.57341.08
Year 5 PV (M)324.41340.08356.35
PV of Terminal Value (M)10,237.8610,732.3511,245.77
Equity Value (M)11,778.2812,317.9312,877.68
Shares Outstanding (M)460.70460.70460.70
Fair Value$25.57$26.74$27.95
Upside / Downside70.55%78.37%86.47%

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