Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

Fundamentals

Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

Valuations

Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

Miscellaneous

Indicators Charts WACC Beta Predictability

Mode

Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Shandong Longji Machinery Co.,Ltd (002363.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.26 - $4.95$3.25
Multi-Stage$1.79 - $1.95$1.87
Blended Fair Value$2.56
Current Price$7.73
Upside-66.93%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS46.68%14.23%0.130.120.190.190.420.020.020.020.020.03
YoY Growth--5.00%-35.33%0.00%-55.06%2,125.00%0.00%7.83%0.00%-48.34%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.64%1.61%2.45%3.10%7.40%0.21%0.27%0.24%0.15%0.24%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)51.69
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)47.42
(=) Cash Retained (M)4.27
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)10.346.463.88
Cash Retained (M)4.274.274.27
(-) Cash Required (M)-10.34-6.46-3.88
(=) Excess Retained (M)-6.07-2.190.39
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)445.91445.91445.91
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.010.000.00
LTM Dividend per Share0.110.110.11
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.010.000.00
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.090.100.11
WACC / Discount Rate9.83%9.83%9.83%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$2.26$3.25$4.95
Upside / Downside-70.76%-58.01%-35.95%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)51.6955.0558.6362.4466.5070.8272.94
Payout Ratio91.74%91.39%91.04%90.69%90.35%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)47.4250.3153.3756.6360.0863.7467.47

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.83%9.83%9.83%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)45.3845.8146.24
Year 2 PV (M)43.4244.2545.08
Year 3 PV (M)41.5542.7443.96
Year 4 PV (M)39.7641.2942.86
Year 5 PV (M)38.0539.8941.79
PV of Terminal Value (M)589.89618.38647.96
Equity Value (M)798.05832.36867.90
Shares Outstanding (M)445.91445.91445.91
Fair Value$1.79$1.87$1.95
Upside / Downside-76.85%-75.85%-74.82%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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