Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Guangdong Haid Group Co., Limited (002311.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$120.53 - $599.95$252.71
Multi-Stage$66.30 - $72.48$69.34
Blended Fair Value$161.02
Current Price$63.77
Upside152.51%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS9.81%13.37%0.680.710.450.490.460.430.340.340.280.21
YoY Growth---3.94%58.69%-8.99%6.78%7.79%24.50%0.55%23.51%33.98%6.01%
Dividend Yield--1.37%1.60%0.77%0.90%0.59%1.06%1.20%1.41%1.67%1.27%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)5,022.60
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,984.45
(=) Cash Retained (M)3,038.15
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,004.52627.82376.69
Cash Retained (M)3,038.153,038.153,038.15
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,004.52-627.82-376.69
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,033.632,410.322,661.45
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,664.911,664.911,664.91
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.221.451.60
LTM Dividend per Share1.191.191.19
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.221.451.60
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.412.642.79
WACC / Discount Rate7.61%7.61%7.61%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$120.53$252.71$599.95
Upside / Downside89.01%296.29%840.81%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)5,022.605,349.075,696.766,067.056,461.416,881.407,087.84
Payout Ratio39.51%49.61%59.71%69.80%79.90%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,984.452,653.593,401.324,235.055,162.806,193.266,556.25

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.61%7.61%7.61%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)2,442.722,465.882,489.03
Year 2 PV (M)2,882.232,937.132,992.55
Year 3 PV (M)3,303.553,398.383,495.01
Year 4 PV (M)3,707.213,849.783,996.42
Year 5 PV (M)4,093.754,291.484,496.78
PV of Terminal Value (M)93,956.9998,495.14103,206.99
Equity Value (M)110,386.45115,437.79120,676.77
Shares Outstanding (M)1,664.911,664.911,664.91
Fair Value$66.30$69.34$72.48
Upside / Downside3.97%8.73%13.66%

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